2024 - Round 4 : The Best Form of Defence ...
/We return to a nine-game fixture this week, with four contests currently expected to be decided by less than 3 goals, three more by less than 4 goals (give or take half a point), and the other two by about 6 goals and 9 goals. The average expected margin is 19.3 points per game and home teams are favourites in only three of the contests.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Almost all of this week’s underdog support comes from Home Sweet Home, with the exception being the Dockers v Blues game where Consult The Ladder and the MoS twins have joined in.
Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in six of the eight games, including 27 points in the Eagles v Swans game, 20 points in the Tigers v Saints game, and 19 points in the Pies v Hawks, and Lions v Roos games.
Bookie_3 has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, and Bookie_9 and the MoS twins in three each.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are five games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Tigers v Saints (17% points), Pies v Hawks (16% points), Lions v Roos, and Dockers v Blues (both 13% points), and Powers v Dons (10% points).
Bookie_RE has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, and MoSSBODS_Prob in five.
WAGERS
After a couple of rounds of losses, one big and one small, Investors might have hoped for a relatively quiet Round 4.
What they have is far from it: six head-to-head bets totalling just over 15% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and seven line bets totalling just over 30% of the Line Fund, as set out below.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
There are a couple of things to note about this week’s line wagers and that is that they are, in two instances, split across two lines. In the case of Port Adelaide, we have 3.9% at $1.90 and -22.5 and 1% at $1.90 and -23.5, while for Richmond we have 3.9% at $1.90 and +22.5 and 1.9% at $1.90 and +21.5. In both cases this is because Sportsbet declined the remainder of the bet.
The round’s Ready Reckoner reveals that Richmond is carrying the largest risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) this week in that the difference between a Tigers win and a loss by 23 points or more represents a swing of 10.7c in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is carried by Hawthorn (10.5%), West Coast (10.2%), North Melbourne (7.9%), Fremantle (6.2%), Port Adelaide (6.1%), Gold Coast (1.6%), and then Adelaide (1.2%).
A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 31c, while a worst case set would snip almost 24c off the price.
To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
