Over the course of the season so far, the MoS twins have tended to over-estimate Total scores by about 5 points per game, and the bookmakers under-estimate them by about 3 points per game. This week, they’ve all but come together in deciding that the nine games will average somewhere around 162 to 163 points per game.
Read MoreThis week’s average expected margin is only just over 14 points per game according to the TAB bookmaker, and would be considerably lower but for the 55.5 points start that North Melbourne are being offered. All of the remaining games have expected margins of under 3 goals, and seven of them of under 2 goals.
If you tip all nine winners this week, you’ll have achieved something remarkable.
Read MoreA dozen teams were again re-ranked on MoSSBODS this week, and a dozen also on MoSHBODS but, for the second week running, the Top 3 were left unchanged on both Systems as Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, and then Richmond. The two Systems also North Melbourne in 18th.
Read MoreThe Head-to-Head Tipsters averaged 6.2 from 9 correct tips this week, up fractionally on last week’s average of 6.1 correct tips. MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHPlay_Marg fared best, bagging 7 from 9, with all other Tipsters bagging 6 from 9. MoSSBODS_Marg now stands alone atop the Leaderboard on 38 from 54 (70%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is a firm Dogs advocate this week
Read MoreThis week’s average gap between the MoS twins’ forecasts and the bookmakers’ has come in at under a goal, with that difference heavily influenced by the strongly diverging views about the likely score in the Pies v Dons game, and offset a little by two games in which the MoS twins are expecting higher scores than are the bookmakers. (Yes, that’s right: higher …)
Read MoreThis week’s average expected margin is just under 15 points per game according to the TAB bookmaker, which is about two-thirds what it was last week. The only game that threatens to be a blowout is the Dockers v Roos game, where the expected margin is about seven goals. Six other games are expected to be won by less than about two goals.
Read MoreA dozen teams were re-ranked on MoSSBODS this week, and 10 on MoSHBODS but, once again the Top 3 were left unchanged on both Systems as Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, and then Richmond. The two Systems also both left Hawthorn in 17th and North Melbourne in 18th.
Read MoreThe Head-to-Head Tipsters did a little better as a group this week, averaging 6.1 from 9 correct tips, with the RSMP twins and Bookie Knows Best recording the round’s highest score of 7 and drawing level with MoSHPlay_Marg. The remaining two MoS models remain tied at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 31 from 45 (69%).
Read MoreNothing too startling from MoSHPlay for the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay now likes the Dogs by 42. No change in the Swans v Giants game.
MoSHPlay pretty much doing what MoSHPlay does in the Saturday games - mostly mainstream in two, and bordering on outrageous in the third
Eagles by 15 in the Friday night game, according to MoSHPlay
With the final teams announced, MoSHPlay is now tipping the Tigers by 7 points
Tigers by only 5 tomorrow night, according to MoSHPlay
This week’s average gap between the MoS twins’ forecasts and the bookmakers’ has come in at just over a goal, though with much larger differences in the Eagles v Pies, Dogs v Suns, and Lions v Dons games.
Read MoreThere’s a greater likelihood of larger victory margins this week, with the average expected margin coming in at just over 22 points per game, according to the TAB bookmaker, and with only two games expected to be won by less than 2 goals, and one, the Cats v Roos game, expected to be won by 9 goals.
Read MoreMoSSBODS, despite re-ranking 14 teams this week, left the Top 3 unchanged as Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, and then Richmond, and left North Melbourne in bottom spot. MoSHBODS re-ranked 13 teams, but left Western Bulldogs in first, Melbourne in second, and North Melbourne in last place.
Read MoreCollectively, the Head-to-Head Tipsters averaged 5.7 from 9 this week, bolstered by 6 from 9 returns for all three MoS Tipsters, which left them filling the top three spots on the Leaderboard.
Read MoreSwans by 28, according to MoSHPlay
Read MoreThe MoS twins continue to be the boys who cried ‘unders’, although the gap between their average forecast total and that of the bookmakers is, at least, reducing.
This week they expect the average score to be about 165 points, while the Bookmakers have it about a goal higher
Read MoreWith such a short turnaround this week, I found myself locking in tips and wagers late last night (Monday) before the major adjustments had been made, so you might see some bigger discrepancies between the lines and prices quoted here, and what the markets look like as you read this.
At the time I locked in, the average expected margin of victory for Round 4, according to the TAB bookmaker, was 13.9 points per game, and six games were expected to be decided by less than 3 goals.
Read MoreIt’s the Western Bulldogs who now hold top spot on both MoS Team Rating Systems, ahead of Melbourne. Richmond has 3rd spot on MoSSBODS, but Port Adelaide has it on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreNone of the Head-to-Head Tipsters bagged more than 5 from 9 this week, but three of the four that managed that return were from the MoS stable, which sees them all sitting atop the Leaderboard.
Read MorePies by 11 in the Thursday game, according to MoSHPlay
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