2021 - Round 4 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins continue to be the boys who cried ‘unders’, although the gap between their average forecast total and that of the bookmakers is, at least, reducing.

This week they expect the average score to be about 165 points, while the Bookmakers have it about a goal higher.

There are four games with double-digit differences, though, with the exception of the Pies v Giants game, those differences are all below 2 goals.

Looking at the highests and lowests, we find notably high levels of agreement, suggesting that the differences between the MoS twins and the bookmakers is mostly about level and not order:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: North Melbourne v Adelaide

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Collingwood v GWS

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Adelaide

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Sydney

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: GWS

WAGERS

Having deftly refrained from wagering in only two Total markets last week, with both having been collects had we not imposed our minimum overlay criterion, we return with week with a slightly more sedate 5 wagers - all of them under wagers, naturally.

Estimated overlays range from about 8 to 15 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 3 saw the MoS twins, between them, record the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Game Margins, Home Team Scores, and Away Team Scores, leaving the TAB and Sportsbet to tie on lowest MAE for Game Totals.

That left MoSSBODS with the overall lead on Home Team Scores and now Away Team Scores as well, MoSHBODS with the overall lead on Game Margins only, and the TAB with the overall lead on Game Totals.

MoSSBODS won just two of its seven wagers with the TAB leaving it with a 6 and 10 record for the season.

Across all games, MoSSBODS is now 13 from 27 (48%) against the TAB, and 12 from 27 (44%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS is 12 from 27 (44%) against both bookmakers.