2021 - Round 4 : The Momentum Builds

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With such a short turnaround this week, I found myself locking in tips and wagers late last night (Monday) before the major adjustments had been made, so you might see some bigger discrepancies between the lines and prices quoted here, and what the markets look like as you read this.

At the time I locked in, the average expected margin of victory for Round 4, according to the TAB bookmaker, was 13.9 points per game, and six games were expected to be decided by less than 3 goals.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

It’s the Melbourne v Geelong game that has attracted the majority of contrarian attention this week, with 5 of the 8 Tipsters opting for the underdog Dees. Home Sweet Home aside, the only other contrarian picks have come in the Pies v Giants, and the Dockers v Hawks games where, in both cases, Consult The Ladder has chosen the underdog.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we have double-digit ranges for the Swans v Dons (17 points), Saints v Eagles (16 points), Roos v Crows (14 points), and Dees v Cats (11 points) games, which is considerably fewer than we had last week.

Of the 18 extreme forecasts, 13 of them belong to just three Predictors, with Bookie_3 having five, and MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg having four each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there are double-digit percentage point ranges in the Swans v Dons (16% points), Saints v Eagles (16% points), and Dees v Cats (12% points) games, which is also considerably fewer than we had last week.

WAGERS

This week is a little busier on the head-to-head front (6.3% of the Fund at risk across 4 bets) and a little quieter on the line front (4.6% at risk across 3 bets). In terms of the Combined Portfolio then, that means Investors have only 4.6% at risk this week, compared to 5.3% last week.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The various scenarios for each wagered-upon game in terms of its possible effects on the value of the Combined Portfolio are then:

  • Essendon lose by 28 points or less: 1.6% x 0.9 x 60% = +0.9%

  • Otherwise: -1.6% x 60% = -1.0%

  • Port Adelaide win: 2.9% x 0.7 x 30% = +0.6%

  • Port Adelaide draw: 2.9% x (1.7/2-1) x 30% = -0.1%

  • Port Adelaide lose: -2.9% x 30% = -0.9%

  • St Kilda win: 0.9% x 2.17 x 30% + 1.8% x 0.9 x 60% = +1.6%

  • St Kilda draw: 0.9% x (3.17/2-1) x 30% + 1.8% x 0.9 x 60% = +1.1%

  • St Kilda lose by less than 18 points: -0.9% x 30% + 1.8% x 0.9 x 60% = +0.7%

  • St Kilda lose by 18 points or more: -0.9% x 30% - 1.8% x 60% = -1.4%

  • North Melbourne win: 0.8% x 2.4 x 30% = +0.6%

  • North Melbourne draw: 0.8% x (2.4/2-1) x 30% = +0.05%

  • North Melbourne lose: -0.8% x 30% = -0.2%

  • Melbourne win: 1.7% x 1.17 x 30% + 1.2% x 0.9 x 60% = +1.2%

  • Melbourne draw: 1.7% x (2.17/2-1) x 30% + 1.2% x 0.9 x 60% = +0.7%

  • Melbourne lose by less than 6 points: -1.7% x 30% + 1.2% x 0.9 x 60% = +0.1%

  • Melbourne lose by 6 points or more: -1.7% x 30% - 1.2% x 60% = -1.2%

So, worst case is a loss of just under 5% of the Combined Portfolio, and best case is a gain of just under 5%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.