2021 - Round 6 : Regaining the Ascendancy

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This week’s average expected margin is just under 15 points per game according to the TAB bookmaker, which is about two-thirds what it was last week. The only game that threatens to be a blowout is the Dockers v Roos game, where the expected margin is about seven goals. Six other games are expected to be won by less than about two goals.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home aside, the only contrarian picks this week have come from Consult The Ladder in four games, and MoSSBODS_Marg in the Melbourne v Richmond game

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we have double-digit ranges in only the Cats v Eagles, Suns v Swans, Dees v Tigers, and Dockers v Roos games, with one or other of the MoS twins forming one end of the range in three of those contests.

Of the 18 extreme forecasts, six of them belong to Bookie_3, who now seems t be making a habit of doing this, and five belong to Bookie_9 and MoSSBODS_Marg.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there are double-digit percentage point ranges in only the Cats v Eagles (20% points), Suns v Swans (12% points), and Dees v Tigers (16% points) games.

MoSSBODS_Prob has eight of the extreme estimates, Bookie_RE has four, while Bookie_OE and Bookie_LPSO have three each.

WAGERS

Six wagers this week, three head-to-head bets totalling 5% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and three line bets on the same teams totalling just under 7.0% of the Line Fund. In terms of the Combined Portfolio, that means Investors have just under 6% at risk, which is almost twice what was at risk in Round 5. It’s a good thing the MoS models are incapable of understanding the concept of and opprobrium attached to “chasing your losses”.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The various scenarios for each wagered-upon game in terms of its possible effects on the value of the Combined Portfolio are then as shown in the Ready Reckoner below. (I figure I’ve shown the by-hand calculations enough now to allow people to conduct their own double-check on the maths)

So, worst case is a loss of just under 6% of the Combined Portfolio, and best case is a gain of about the same size.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.