2021 - Round 6 : Overs/Unders

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This week’s average gap between the MoS twins’ forecasts and the bookmakers’ has come in at under a goal, with that difference heavily influenced by the strongly diverging views about the likely score in the Pies v Dons game, and offset a little by two games in which the MoS twins are expecting higher scores than are the bookmakers. (Yes, that’s right: higher …)

All four forecasters again lowered their average expectation relative to Round 5, the bookmakers by about 4 points per game, and the MoS twins by about 1 to 2 points per game.

Looking at the highests and lowests, we find that the difference in the views about the Pies v Dons game is so large that the MoS twins have it as the lowest-scoring game of the round, and the bookmakers as the highest.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Hawthorn v Adelaide

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Collingwood v Essendon

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Collingwood v Essendon

  • TAB and Sportsbet: GWSv Western Bulldogs

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Fremantle

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: North Melbourne

WAGERS

We return with four wagers this week, including an historic overs bet in the first game of the round

Estimated overlays range from about 8 points to a whopping 24 points in that Pies v Dons game.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 5 saw Sportsbet record the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Game Margins, Home Team Scores, Away Team Scores and Game Totals, equalled by the TAB for Game Margins and Home Team Score.

Overall, that means the TAB has the best season-long performance on Home Team Scores and Away Team Scores, while Sportsbet has the best season-long performance on Game Margins and Game Totals, and is tied with the TAB on Home Team Scores,

(Regular readers might notice a change in the performance data shown here for the two bookmakers in Round 1. A review of the input data revealed errors in what was recorded for them in that round. Some of you might also be curious why the season-long Game Margin MAEs shown here for MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS are marginally better than those shown in the regular, weekly post-game reviews. That’s because the numbers published for the Collingwood v Brisbane Lions game on the Overs/Unders blog for Round 3 were about 10 points different from those published in the regular weekly forecasts blog. I really could do with a sub-editor or fact checker …)

MoSSBODS won two of its three wagers with the TAB last week, but neither of its two wagers with Sportsbet, leaving it with a 10 and 13 record for the season with the TAB, and with a 3 and 5 record for the season with Sportsbet.

Across all games, MoSSBODS is now 21 from 45 (47%) against the TAB, and 20 from 45 (44%) against Sportsbet, while MoSHBODS is 22 from 45 (49%) against both bookmakers.