2021 - Round 7 : Kicking On

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This week’s average expected margin is only just over 14 points per game according to the TAB bookmaker, and would be considerably lower but for the 55.5 points start that North Melbourne are being offered. All of the remaining games have expected margins of under 3 goals, and seven of them of under 2 goals.

If you tip all nine winners this week, you’ll have achieved something remarkable.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Speaking of tipping winners, the expected close nature of many of the contests has seen a lot more contrarian tipping this week, involving the ever-contrarian Home Sweet Home, but also Consult The Ladder, MoSSBODS_Marg, and MoSHBODS_Marg in multiple games.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we have double-digit ranges in only the Lions v Power, Roos v Dees, and Eagles v Dockers games.

Of the 18 extreme forecasts, five of them belong Bookie_3, four to MoSHBODS_Marg, Bookie_3, and two each to Bookie_Hcap, Bookie_9 and MoSSBODS_Marg.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there are double-digit percentage point ranges in the Pies v Suns (10% points), Crows v Giants (10% points), Saints v Hawks (11%), Lions v Power (19% points), and Eagles v Dockers (17% points) games. That means we could well see some larger-than-usual moves on the Head-to-Head Probability Predictor Leaderboard this week.

Bookie_RE has six of the extreme estimates, MoSHBODS_Prob has five, Bookie_RE has four, while Bookie_LPSO and MoSSBODS_Prob have three each.

WAGERS

Seven wagers this week, five head-to-head bets totalling 6.3% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and two line bets totalling just 4.5% of the Line Fund. In terms of the Combined Portfolio, that means Investors have 4.6% at risk, which is down by just under 1.5% points compared to last week.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The various scenarios for each wagered-upon game in terms of its possible effects on the value of the Combined Portfolio are then as shown in the Ready Reckoner below.

Clearly, the Lions v Power game is key to profitability, though the Eagles v Dockers Derby also represents a 1.7% point swing.

Worst case is a loss of 4.6% of the Combined Portfolio, and best case is a gain of 5.4%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.