2021 - Round 5 : Still Building

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There’s a greater likelihood of larger victory margins this week, with the average expected margin coming in at just over 22 points per game, according to the TAB bookmaker, and with only two games expected to be won by less than 2 goals, and one, the Cats v Roos game, expected to be won by 9 goals.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home aside, the only contrarian picks this week have come from Consult The Ladder in the Lions v Dons game, and ENS_Linear and the MoS twins in the Blues v Power game.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we have double-digit ranges in all but the Dogs v Suns, and Lions v Dons games, meaning that we could see a larger spread of mean absolute error figures for this round.

Of the 18 extreme forecasts, seven of them belong to Bookie_3, and six to MoSSBODS_Marg.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there are double-digit percentage point ranges in the Saints v Tigers (11% points), Eagles v Pies (11% points), Swans v Giants (11% points), and Blues v Power (14% points) games.

MoSSBODS_Prob has seven of the extreme estimates, and Bookie_LPSO has six.

WAGERS

A much quieter week coming up for Investors, with only three head-to-head bets totalling 5.5% of the Head-to-Head Fund to worry about, and two line bets totalling 2.0% of the Line Fund to go with them. In terms of the Combined Portfolio, that means Investors have only about 3% at risk, which is well down on last week.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The various scenarios for each wagered-upon game in terms of its possible effects on the value of the Combined Portfolio are then:

  • St Kilda win: 0.9% x 2.11 x 30% = +0.6%

  • St Kilda draw: 0.9% x (2.11/2-1) x 30% = +0.01%

  • St Kilda lose: -0.9% x 30% = -0.3%

  • Carlton win: 1.5% x 1.36 x 30% + 1.7% x 0.9 x 60% = +1.5%

  • Carlton draw: 1.5% x (2.36/2-1) x 30% + 1.7% x 0.9 x 60% = +1.0%

  • Carlton lose by less than 9 points: -1.5% x 30% + 1.7% x 0.9 x 60% = +0.5%

  • Carlton lose by 9 points or more: -1.5% x 30% - 1.7% x 60% = -1.5%

  • Adelaide win: 3.1% x 0.65 x 30% = +0.6%

  • Adelaide draw: 3.1% x (1.65/2-1) x 30% = -0.2%

  • Adelaide lose: -3.1% x 30% = -0.9%

  • North Melbourne lose by less than 55 points: 0.3% x 0.9 x 60% = +0.2%

  • Otherwise: -0.3% x 60% = -0.2%

So, worst case is a loss of just under 3% of the Combined Portfolio, and best case is a gain of just under 3%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.