2020 - Final Overs/Unders Performance
/In Round 22, the bookmakers recorded the smallest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) for Game Margins, Home Team Scores, and AwayTeam Scores, and MoSHBODS recorded the smallest MAE for Game Totals.
Read More2020 - Team Ratings After Round 22 (Final)
/MoSHBODS’ relatively high and unfulfilled expectations of the Cats was enough to have it crown Richmond as the number 1 rated team at the end of the season, while MoSSBODS’ less lofty aspirations for the runners up saw it leave Geelong in top spot.
Read More2020 - Round 22 Results - The Final Accounting
/So, after 162 games and one of the most extraordinary seasons of all time for reasons unrelated to football, our three winners are:
Head-to-Head Tipster: MoSHPlay_Marg (116 correct tips, which is an accuracy of 72%)
Margin Predictor: Bookie_9 (MAE of 22.81 points per game)
Head-to-Head Probability Predictor: Bookie_LPSO (Average Log Probability Score of 0.1500 bits per game)
Read More2020 - Round 22 : MoSHPlay Update
/MoSHPlay’s first forecast of the season is bold without being ridiculous. That’s a good start.
Read More2020 - Round 22 : Overs/Unders
/In last year’s Grand Final, Richmond scored 47 points in the first half. This year, even using the bookmakers’ more-generous estimates, they’re tipped to score only a couple of goals more in the entire contest.
Those bookmakers have estimated the total score for the match at 118.5 points, which is just a couple of points below the MoS twins’ estimates.
Read More2020 - Round 22 (Week 4 of the Finals) - Tipping The Upset
/No matter how irrational it might be, recency bias will inevitably affect how a season’s performance of the MoS models will be remembered, and the result of the Grand Final will always be the most recent memory from that season. As such, the forecasts for that game always take on added, if perhaps unwarranted, importance.
This year, the MoS twins are both tipping an upset Cats victory, which, if anything, heightens the stakes.
Read More2020 - Team Ratings After Round 21
/And it came to pass that the two highest-ranked teams on all three MoS Team Rating Systems progressed to the Grand Final.
On MoSSBODS, Geelong will enter that Grand Final with 3.7 SS Rating advantage, and on MoSHBODS with a 6.7 points advantage.
Read More2020 - Round 21 Results - A Grand Finale
/MoSHPlay_Marg did enough to secure the Head-to-Head Tipster title this week, and MoSHBODS_Marg assured itself of at least a share of 2nd, with RSMP_Simple the only other Tipster with a chance to tie for that spot.
The all-Tipster average for the week was just 0.7 from 2, with 5 of the 9 Tipsters recording zeroes.
Read More2020 - Round 21 : MoSHPlay Update
/It’s Port Adelaide by two goals in the Friday night game, according to MoSHPlay.
MOSHPLAY UPDATE 7:15PM FRIDAY
Turns out MoSHPlay is an even bigger fan of the Cats than MoSHBODS. Cats by 15.
MOSHPLAY UPDATE 7PM SATURDAY
After seeing the final squads, MoSHPlay likes the Cats even more. Cats by 17 now.
2020 - Round 21 : Overs/Unders
/The MoS twins are slightly more optimistic about the likely scoring in the upcoming Preliminary Finals, but only by about a goal.
Read More2020 - Round 21 (Week 3 of the Finals) - MoSHBODS Changes (Is Out Of?) Its Mind
/Regular readers might recall that, last week, I explained the intricacies of how the MoS twins come up with Venue Performance Values (VPVs), which are their versions of Home Ground Advantage.
Read More2020 - Team Ratings After Round 20
/Geelong still heads both MoS Team Rating Systems this week, and now has a 2.5 Scoring Shot lead over Brisbane Lions on MoSSBODS, and a 2.8 point lead over Port Adelaide on MoSHBODS.
On MoSSBODS now, just under 3 Scoring Shots separate 1st from 4th, while on MoSHBODS the gap is just under 4 points.
Read More2020 - Round 20 Results - Not Over Yet
/MoSHPlay_Marg, in tipping both winners this week, moved three tips clear of MoSHBODS_Marg and so, with just three games still to be played in the 2020 season, is guaranteed at least a share of the final title.
With only MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg offering contrarian tips this week and with both games being won by the favourite, the all-Tipster average for the week came in at 1.8 from 2.
Read More2020 - Round 20 : MoSHPlay Update
/MoSHPlay has the Tigers winning by just over 4 goals in the Friday night Semi Final.
Read More2020 - Round 20 : Overs/Unders
/The MoS twins roughly agree with the bookmakers about the likely total scores in the two Semi Finals, but not entirely about how those totals will be apportioned to the teams in each game.
Read More2020 - Round 20 (Week 2 of the Finals) - The MoS Twins Get Brave
/Both MoS Team Rating Systems have parameters that determine how Venue Performance Values (VPV) are estimated.
Read More2020 - Team Ratings After Round 19
/Geelong’s superior scoring shot production to Port Adelaide was enough to propel it back into the lead on both MoS Team Rating System this week, though its lead over Brisbane Lions is just 0.3 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and over Richmond is less than one-tenth of a point on MoSHBODS.
On MoSSBODS now, just 0.7 Scoring Shots separates 1st from 4th, while on MoSHBODS the gap is just 1.6 points. You can proverbially throw a blanket over the Cats, Lions, Tigers, and Power under both Systems.
Read More2020 - Round 19 Results - Sub 5 MAE
/Tipping winners proved hard this week for the Head-to-Head Tipsters, with only Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder doing better than chance. MoSHPlay_Marg managed just 1 from 4, which saw its lead over MoSHBODS_Marg pared to two.
The all-Tipster average for the week came in at 1.4 from 4.
Read More2020 - Round 19 : MoSHPlay Update
/MoSHPlay is tipping a narrow Cats win in Thursday’s game.
Read More2020 - Round 19 : Overs/Unders
/The MoS twins’ treat Finals a little differently than regular home-and-away games - mostly in how they estimate Venue Performance Values (VPVs) - which this week has produced Totals forecasts that are higher than the bookmakers’ in three of the four games.
Read More
