2020 - Round 20 Results - Not Over Yet
/MoSHPlay_Marg, in tipping both winners this week, moved three tips clear of MoSHBODS_Marg and so, with just three games still to be played in the 2020 season, is guaranteed at least a share of the final title.
With only MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg offering contrarian tips this week and with both games being won by the favourite, the all-Tipster average for the week came in at 1.8 from 2.
Things are much tighter amongst the Margin Predictors, with the Top 5 Predictors now separated by less than three goals. Bookie_9 remains top, now about two goals clear of the RSMP twins..
On that Leaderboard, MoSSBODS_Marg, with its 51.4 points per game MAE, fell furthest, slipping from 2nd to 7th.
MoSHPlay_Prob returned the highest log probability score this week, nudging MoSSBODS_Prob, who returned the only negative score, into 2nd. Bookie_LPSO registered the second-highest score and remains 3rd on the Leaderboard.
To get a sense of how close the Head-to-Head Probability Predictor scores are, recognise that, for example, the difference between attaching a 55% versus a 70% probability to a winning team represents about 0.35 bits. Given that we’ve now played 159 games, a difference that large would move an average log probability score by about 0.002 bits. The current gap between MoSHPlay_Prob and MoSSBODS_Prob in only about 2.7 times that amount.
WAGERS
The line wager on the Pies didn’t even really survive the first quarter in Saturday night’s game, which left Investors with a loss on the round even after the handy collect on Friday night.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio fell in value by 1.3c, its first loss since Round 14. It now has a price of $1.165, this result coming from a 15.9% ROT on a 1.035 turn of the Portfolio Funds.
