2020 - Team Ratings After Round 20
/Geelong still heads both MoS Team Rating Systems this week, and now has a 2.5 Scoring Shot lead over Brisbane Lions on MoSSBODS, and a 2.8 point lead over Port Adelaide on MoSHBODS.
On MoSSBODS now, just under 3 Scoring Shots separate 1st from 4th, while on MoSHBODS the gap is just under 4 points.
Overall, only two teams were re-ranked by MoSSBODS this week, and only four by MoSHBODS, and none at all under either System by more than a single spot. The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9924.
By way of comparison, the MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Ratings of the four Preliminary Finalists last year at the same stage were:
Richmond +4.4 / +16.8
Brisbane Lions +3.7 / +6.7
Collingwood +3.0 / +12.2
GWS +2.9 / +9.5
That would suggest that this year’s Preliminary Finalists are of a higher quality than last year’s.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Cats, Lions, and Dogs, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Lions, Dogs, and Cats. On defence, MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Cats, Pies, and Power, and MoSHBODS has a Top 3 of Cats, Power, and Tigers.
Only six teams are rated above-average on offence, but 13 above-average on defence.
On MoSSBODS, 6 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 5 are rated negatively on both (no change), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 7 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.665, which is up compared to last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked only two teams this week, and extended the Cats’ lead at the top to over 3 Rating Points.
Like the two MoS Rating Systems, MARS’ four highest-rated teams are all the ones playing in Preliminary Finals. The gap between 1st and 4th is just over 12 Rating Points.
Again, for comparative purposes the MARS Ratings of the four Semi Finalists and two Preliminary Finalists last year at the same stage were:
Geelong 1,032.8
Richmond 1,028.9
Collingwood 1,021.7
GWS 1,016.1
So, the average Rating was lower, and the spread of the Ratings was greater.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Carlton, Fremantle, and West Coast (4 spots each) have the widest range of rankings, while all remaining 15 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots (and 12 teams by no more than a single spot).
Collingwood and Geelong are currently ranked the same by all three Systems.
