2020 - Round 20 : Overs/Unders
/The MoS twins roughly agree with the bookmakers about the likely total scores in the two Semi Finals, but not entirely about how those totals will be apportioned to the teams in each game.
MoSSBODS has Geelong as the round’s lowest-scoring team, while MoSHBODS and the two bookmakers have it as St Kilda. All four forecasters have Richmond as the highest-scoring team.
All four also have the Cats v Pies game as the lower-scoring of the Semi Finals.
WAGERS
So similar are MoSSBODS’ Totals forecasts this week that Investors have no wagers in either game.
The estimated overlays in both games against both bookmakers are under 2 points. We’re not interested in that.
In Round 19, MoSSBODS performed extremely well again, taking Mean Absolute Error (MAE) honours for Game Margins and Away Team Scores MoSHBODS produced lowest MAE for Home Team Scores, and the TAB did the same for Game Totals.
MoSSBODS now has the season-long MAE lead for Game Margins and Away Team Scores, MoSHBODS for Home Team Scores, and the TAB bookmaker for Game Totals.
MoSSBODS had wagers on all four games in Round 19, and went 1 and 2 against the TAB, and 1 and 0 against Easybet. That left it with a season-long 70% record against the TAB, and a 57% record against Easybet.
Across all games, MoSSBODS is now 87 from 157 (55%) against the TAB, and 88 from 157 (56%) against Easybet, while MoSHBODS is 91 from 157 (58%) against the TAB, and 92 from 157 (59%) against Easybet.
