2020 - Team Ratings After Round 19

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Geelong’s superior scoring shot production to Port Adelaide was enough to propel it back into the lead on both MoS Team Rating System this week, though its lead over Brisbane Lions is just 0.3 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and over Richmond is less than one-tenth of a point on MoSHBODS.

On MoSSBODS now, just 0.7 Scoring Shots separates 1st from 4th, while on MoSHBODS the gap is just 1.6 points. You can proverbially throw a blanket over the Cats, Lions, Tigers, and Power under both Systems.

Overall, eight teams were re-ranked by MoSSBODS, but just three by MoSHBODS, two (Geelong and Port Adelaide) by multiple spots on MoSSBODS, and only one (Geelong) by multiple spots on MoSHBODS. The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9959.

By way of comparison, the MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Ratings of the four Semi Finalists and two Preliminary Finalists last year at the same stage were:

  1. Richmond +4.4 / +16.8

  2. Brisbane Lions +3.9 / +7.0

  3. Geelong +3.1 / +13.1

  4. Collingwood +3.0 / +12.2

  5. GWS +2.7 / +9.2

  6. West Coast +1.4 / +7.5

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now with Top 3s of Lions, Dogs, and Cats. On defence, MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Pies, Tigers, and Cats, and MoSHBODS has a Top 3 of Pies, Tigers, and Power.

Only six teams are rated above-average on offence, but 13 above-average on defence.

On MoSSBODS, 6 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 5 are rated negatively on both (no change), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 7 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.635, which is up compared to last week.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked none of the teams this week, but closed up the raw Ratings such that Geelong in 1st and Richmond in 4th are separated by only 6.9 Rating Points (which equates to about 5 points in terms of margin in a standard season).

After the Top 4 we have a gap to Collingwood of just over 13 Rating Points, and another gap to St Kilda of 3.5 Rating Points.

Again, for comparative purposes the MARS Ratings of the four Semi Finalists and two Preliminary Finalists last year at the same stage were:

  1. Geelong 1,031.5

  2. Richmond 1,028.9

  3. West Coast 1,022.8

  4. Collingwood 1,021.7

  5. GWS 1,015.8

  6. Brisbane Lions 1,011.1

Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Carlton, Fremantle, and West Coast (4 spots each) have the widest range of rankings, while all remaining 15 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots (and 12 teams by no more than a single spot).

Collingwood and Geelong are currently ranked the same by all three Systems.