2025 - Round 3 : Are Dogs Overrated

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We’ve yet another eight-ninths of a full round coming up this week in this the Year of Making the Ladder Impossible to Interpret. Three of those eight games are currently forecasted to be settled by about a goal or less, two more by about two goals, two more by about four goals, and only one by about seven goals.

Let’s see what the models make of it all.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Contrarianism this week, aside from the obligatory four-game effort from Home Sweet Home, and the one-game contribution from a perplexed Consult the Ladder, forced to make something of that ladder, comes only in the Dees v Suns game, and only from ENS_Linear and MoSSBODS_Marg.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five games, most notably 20 points in the Eagles v Dockers clash, 18 points in the Blues v Dogs clash, and 14 points in both the Lions v Cats, and the Crows v Roos matchups.

MoSSBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, and Bookie_9 in three.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are three games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges including 17% points in the Blues v Dogs game, and 11% points in both the Lions v Cats, and the Dees v Suns games.

MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in six games, and MoSHBODS_Prob and Bookie_LPSO in four each.

WAGERS

This week, much of the joy or sadness will come from how well the Dogs perform, and getting the bets on them made for an unusual situation.

The offers were -2.5 @ $2.05 from the TAB, and +0.5 @ $1.90 from Sportsbet. Using MoSHBODS’ estimate of the margin SD for this game (33.2 points), MoSHBODS’ expected margin of -11.8 (ie a Dogs’ 2-goal win), and our usual assumption that game margin are Normally distributed around their mean, we can calculate the estimated win probabilities for the two offers as follows:

  • TAB: normdist(11.8-2.5, 0, 33.2, TRUE) = 61%

  • Sportsbet: normdist(11.8+0.5, 0, 33.2, TRUE) = 64%

The estimated edges are, therefore:

  • TAB: 61% x 2.05 - 1 = 25%

  • Sportsbet: 64% x 1.90 - 1 = 22%

So, the TAB offer is preferred, and our 1/5th Kelly wager is

  • 1/5 x Estimated Edge / (Price - 1) = (0.2 x 25%)/1.05 = 4.8%

However, the TAB will only allow us to wager 3.1% so we need to calculate what we’d wager if only the Sportsbet offer was available. By the same logic that would be:

  • 1/5 x Estimated Edge / (Price - 1) = (0.2 x 22%)/0.9 = 4.9%

So now we want MORE overall exposure to a smaller edge. I can’t ever recall that happening before when I’ve made the calculation for the second-best wager, but it is a logical consequence of the smaller denominator used for the Sportsbet Kelly calculation.

What I would normally do is look to get additional coverage equal to the difference between what I’d have taken on the second-best offer and what I’ve already secured plus a bit because some of my exposure is actually already at a more attractive price, but here I’ve just secured total coverage equal to that 4.9%. Weird. I need to give some thought to what the correct wagering strategy is here.

Anyway, that 4.9% on the Dogs is joined in the line market by a 0.4% wager on the Dons +6.5 @ $1.90, and an 0.8% wager on the Hawks -12.5 @ $1.90.

In the head-to-head market Investors have 5.1% on the Dogs, 2.7% on Gold Coast, and two roughly 0.5% wagers on the Dons and the Hawks.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The Ready Reckoner this week reveals that, unsurprisingly, Western Bulldogs carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a win by 3 points or more and a loss of any size represents 8.9% of the Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Gold Coast carry 1.3% risk, Hawthorn 1.1%, and Essendon 0.8%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 6c, while a worst case set would snip just over 6c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.