2025 - Round 2 Results - We Recalibrate, And Move On
/If ever you feel the need to learn a little more about yourself, spend time each week for a l-o-n-g time documenting the public performance of some activity you perform, and notice just how much less enjoyable it is when that performance has been less than what you’d hoped for. I’ve been doing this now for over 20 years, but the difference remains chasm-like.
Anyway, tipping winners was fairly challenging this week, with only 5 of 8 early-week favourites taking the points, which resulted in Bookie Knows Best, RSMP_Weighted, and ENS_Linear turning in the week’s best Head-to-Head Predictor results of just that 5 from 8.
The remaining Predictors scored only 3 or 4, which left the Leaderboard showing Bookie Knows Best, MoSHPlay_Marg, and RSMP_Weighted tied at the top on 14 from 19 (74%), just one tip ahead of ENS_Linear and RSMP_Simple.
Large and underdog wins made for another week of challenging margin predicting, wih RSMP_Weighted navigating it best of all with a mean average error (MAE) of 29.8 points per game. Next best was Bookie_9’s 30.2 points per game, and worst was MoSSBODS_Marg’s 37 points per game.
Bookie_9 now heads the table, but is only just over 3 points ahead of RSMP_Weighted.
The round-by-round history of Margin Predictor rankings appears below.
Log probability scores were mostly just positive for all Predictors this week, with the exception of MoSSBODS_Prob.
MoSHBODS_Prob still heads the Leaderboard, and MoSHPlay_Prob retains 2nd ahead of MoSSBODS_Prob in 3rd.
WAGERING
It was red ink for the Head-to-Head and Overs/Unders Funds this week, and mere break-even for the Line Fund as they collectively won only 3 of 10 wagers.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished down by just under 2c, which makes it now up by just under 10c on the season, that from a 34% ROI on a 0.3 turn.
