2025 - Round 3 : Overs/Unders

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MoSSBODS this week disagrees with MoSHBODS on the Total for each game by amounts ranging from 1 point to 6 points but, on average, has the same expected Total of 171 points per game.

That exactly matches the all-game average for the two bookmakers, even with a 20-point difference in the Lions v Cats game.

Opinions about high- and low-scoring teams and games are as follows:

Highest Scoring Game

  • All: Adelaide v North Melbourne

Lowest Scoring Game

  • MoS twins: Melbourne v Gold Coast

  • Bookmakers: Brisbane Lions v Geelong

Highest Scoring Team

  • All: Adelaide

Lowest Scoring Team

  • MoSSBODS and Bookmakers: West Coast

  • MoSHBODS: Richmond

WAGERS

This week, three games have an overlay of 7 points or more, but one of those is the Lions v Cats game the weather forecast for which currently has a 90% chance of rain of 8 to 60mm (and a similar forecast for the previous day).

So, we’ll eschew the overs wager in the all-feline contest, and settle for two unders wagers of moderate size.

Those wagers are for 3.3% and 4% of the original Overs/Unders Fund and are associated with overlays of around 8 and 10 points.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week was a better week for the bookmakers, as Sportsbet took overall honours for Game Margins, the TAB took overall honours for Home Team Scores, and the pair shared honours for Game Totals. That left only Away Team Scores, which MoSHBODS secured.

MoSHBODS still has the season-long outright lead on Home Score, Away Score, and Game Totals, but has this week surrendered the lead on Game Margins to the TAB.

The leads are as follows:

  • Game Margins: TAB 3 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 15 ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 13 points ahead of MoSSBODS, 20 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 21 points ahead of the TAB

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 11 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 12 points ahead of the TAB

  • Game Totals: MoSHBODS less than 1 point ahead of Sportsbet, 3 ahead of the TAB, and 10 ahead of MoSSBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were only one two bets last week - two losers with the TAB on unders. That took MoSSBODS to a 1 and 2 season long performance.

Overall, MoSSBODS was on the right side of the Total just 1 time in 8 against the TAB and Sportsbet. MoSHBODS managed 4 from 8 against both bookmakers.

That takes MoSSBODS to 7 from 19 (37%) against the TAB, and 6 from 19 (32%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 11 from 19 (58%) against the TAB, and 10 from 19 (53%) against Sportsbet.