2024 - Team Ratings After Round 20
/MoSSBODS reranked 10 teams this week, and MoSHBODS 11, which left them with a shared Top 5 of Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, a Carlton.
Ony four teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS, with Hawthorn and St Kilda both climbing four spots, Adelaide falling four spots, and Gold Coast falling two spots.. Four teams also moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS, with Adelaide dropping four spots, and Geelong two spots, and Hawthorn rising two spots ans St Kilda rising a hefty five spots.
On MoSSBODS, 1st and 13th are now separated by only 6.4 Scoring Shots (which is about 4 goals), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 11th are separated by only 18 points.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.9911 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.68 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now with Top 3s of Lions, Swans, and Dogs. On defence, MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Dogs, Saints, and Dockers, while MoSHBODS has Dogs, Saints, and Swans.
MoSSBODS still has only eight teams rated as above average on offence while MoSHBODS still has 10. Also, MoSSBODS now has 11 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS now has 12 so rated.
Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS span a range of 8.1 scoring shots (about 29 points) and defensive ratings a range of just 7.3 scoring shots (about 27 points). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 27 points and defensive ratings also a range of 27 points.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.
We can put these Ratings into an historical context by seeing how they compare to the Ratings of teams from previous seasons at the end of Round 20 (assuming they had one in their respective home and away season).
Wetern Bulldogs are now the only team with a Rating in the top 50% of those that went on to play in a Grand Final.
On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 6 are rated negatively on both (up 1), one is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 4 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 1).
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.71, which is up a bit on last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked only seven teams this week, leaving Sydney and Brisbane Lions in 1st and 2nd, and swapping Western Bulldogs into 3rd ahead of Carlton.
Below them, Hawthorn rose three spots into 9th, St Kilda rose two spots into 12th, and Adelaide fell five spots into 13th. No other teams moved by more than a single spot.
Just under 25 Rating Points now separates 2nd from 13th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of about 20 points.
By way of comparison, at the end of Round 20 last season, the gap between 2nd and 13th was about 30 Rating Points, or roughly 24 points.
There are still 12 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, with Adelaide rated just below 1,000.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:
HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Essendon (and, less so, GWS)
LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs
MARS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 15, ahead of MoSSBODS with 5, and MoSHBODS with just 3.
MARS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of GWS.
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of only 2 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS also about only 2, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 11.
Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that GWS has the widest range of rankings at six spots, and that there are only two other teams where the rankings span more than two spots.
There are also two teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Essendon and Richmond.
