2024 - Round 21 : The Chosen Ones

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No game this week is expected to be won by more than about 3-and-a-half goals, notwithstanding that five of the contests pit teams that are separated by 6 spots or more on the competition ladder against one another. What’s more, one of the games with the 20.5 point handicap is between teams separated by only 3 ladder positions.

Yet more evidence that the competition ladder is a relatively poor indicator of ability at this point in the season (an observation that is only reinforced by the fact that Consult The Ladder, who picks the team team higher on the ladder to win every game, has only a 58% record this year, which is no better than naively picking the home team in every contest).

The all-game average expected margin is just 11.4 points per game, which is over 3 points per game lower than last week.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Contrarianism this week is confined to Home Sweet Home in five games, MoSHBODS_Marg in three games, and MoSSBODS_Marg in two.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in only three games this week: Roos v Tigers (18 points), and Eagles v Suns, and Giants v Hawks (11 points).

Bookie_9 has Extreme Predictor status in seven games this week, and Bookie_3 and ENS_Linear in three games each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only two games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Roos v Tigers (19% points) and Giants v Hawks (10% points).

Bookie_OE has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, and MoSSBODS_Prob in five.

WAGERS

Investors’ eggs are all firmly placed in a two-team basket this week courtesy of head-to-head and lne bets on Richmond and Hawthorn.

The bookmaker dance was confined to the line market bets on Richmond where Investors were seeking a wager of 6.5% of the original Line Fund on the Tigers +8.5 at $1.90, but eventually settled on 4.4% at that line and price, and another 1.7% at +7.5 and $1.90.

In total, Investors have just over 5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund on two teams, and 9% of the original Line Fund on the same two teams.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Investors therefore have the following schedule of possible wns and losses:

RICHMOND

  • Wins: 25% x 3.7% x 1.27 + 65% x 6.1% x 0.9 = +4.7%

  • Draws: 25% x 3.7% x (2.27/2 - 1) + 65% x 6.1% x 0.9 = +3.7%

  • Loses by 1 to 7 points: -25% x 3.7% + 65% x 6.1% x 0.9 = +2.6%

  • Loses by 8 points: -25% x 3.7% + 65% x 4.4% x 0.9 - 65% x 1.7% = +0.5%

  • Loses by 9 points or more: -25% x 3.7% - 65% x 6.1% = -4.9%

HAWTHORN

  • Wins: 25% x 1.4% x 1.1 + 65% x 2.9% x 0.9 = +2.1%

  • Draws: 25% x 1.4% x (2.1/2 - 1) + 65% x 2.9% x 0.9 = +1.7%

  • Loses by 1 to 4 points: -25% x 1.4% + 65% x 2.9% x 0.9 = +1.3%

  • Loses by 5 points or more: -25% x 1.4% - 65% x 2.9% = -2.2%

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 7c, while a worst case set would snip about the same off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.