2024 - Round 20 Results - A Little Humbling
/Just four of the nine early-week favourites were successful in Round 20, and the Head-to-Head Tipping scores ranged from Home Sweet Home’s 3 to Consult the Ladder’s and RSMP_Simple’s 6.
MoSHPlay_Marg recorded a just above-average 5 from 9, which was enough to keep it two tips clear of RSMP_Simple atop the Leaderboard. First and 7th are now separated by 6 tips.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 4.6 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 106.8 from 171 (63%).
Margin prediction was about as difficult this week, with mean absolute errors (MAEs) ranging from Bookie_Hcap’s 27.7 points per game to RSMP_Weighted’s 30.1 points per game, with the all-Predictor average coming in at 29.1 points per game, which is about 1 point per game worse than last week. The season-long all-predictor average is now 26.4 points per game per predictor.
There were just four movements on the Leaderboard this week, seeing RSMP_Simple fall to 5th, Bookie_9 fall back to 3rd, Bookie_Hcap rise to 2nd, and ENS_Linear rise to 4th.
The gap between 1st and 7th is, however, only 53 points.
Log probability scores were all barely positive this week, but slightly higher for the bookie-based forecasters.
That left MoSHPlay_Prob narrowly in 1st place ahead of Bookie_LPSO and Bookie_RE.
WAGERING
It was yet another disappointing round for Investors, and hopes of completing a sixth successive profitable season seem genuinely in deep peril now.
All three Funds recorded losses with just a single collect each.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished down by just over 6c, which leaves it down now by almost 24c on the season, that from a -8.6% ROT on a 2.8 turn.
