2023 - Team Ratings After Round 1
/The MoS twins are still in 2023 parameterised in such a way that they make some of their largest adjustments in the early parts of the season, as evidenced by the Port Adelaide, Sydney, Collingwood, Melbourne, and Essendon climbs this week, and the matching Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, and Hawthorn falls.
Overall, 16 teams were re-ranked by MoSSBODS, and 13 by MoSHBODS, 7 by multiple spots on MoSSBODS, and 9 by multiple spots on MoSHBODS. Geelong, however, still sit in 1st on both Systems, with Port Adelaide now 2nd on MoSSBODS, and Sydney 2nd on MoSHBODS.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9945.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Power, and Pies, and MoSHBODS with Cats, Power, and Swans. On defence we find MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Dees, and Dockers, and MoSHBODS with Dockers, Dees, and Cats.
On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence, 7 are rated negatively on both, 1 is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence, and 3 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence. The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0627.
And, finally, to MARS, our far-more conservative team rating system, which re-ranked a relatively restrained 10 teams this week, leaving Geelong in first place, Melbourne in 2nd, and Sydney in 3rd..
Seven teams moved by more than a single spot, the biggest movers being Collingwood and Essendon, who both rose three places, and Western Bulldogs, who fell three places.
Eleven teams are rated as better-than or equal-to average by MARS, after which there is a 3-point gap to a fast-climbing Essendon and about 3.5 more to an also-climbing GWS.
The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at a sizeable 51 Rating Points. By comparison, at the same point last year the range was only just under 39 Rating Points.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find relatively large differences for a number of teams in terms of their rating-based rankings.
(There are even greater differences relative to the teams’ ladder positions, but that is to be expected after just a single round.)
MARS, as usual, provides the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for 10 of the teams, with Brisbane Lions perhaps the most notable example.
By comparison, MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for nine teams, and MoSHBODS for just two.
It is, though, early, early days, and all three of the Rating Systems will remain frisky for the next month or so. We should expect to see some greater alignment between, at least, the ladder ordering and that of the Rating Systems as time progresses.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Brisbane Lions (4 spots) has the widest range of rankings, while 16 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots, including Essendon, Geelong, and Hawthorn, for which all three Systems have the same ranking.
