2023 - Round 2 : The Quiet Round
/It’s weeks like this that make me realise that the goal is not to create predictive models that virtually mimic the established bookmakers, but instead to create predictive models that are highly correlated for the most part with those bookmakers, but that differ often enough to be interesting, and that are right when they’re different often enough to be profitable.
More on that later.
In the meantime, turning to the games in prospect for Round 2, the TAB Bookmaker has it as another likely-to-be-highly-competitve round, with the average expected victory margin just over 14 points per game..
There are three games with expected single-digit margins and four with expected margins in the 10.5 to 13.5 point range. The two outliers are 28.5 points and 39.5 points in the Dockers’ and Swans’ home games.
That final average figure of 14.1 is slightly higher than last year's figure for Round 2 of 13.4 points per game, but lower than the Round 2 figures for the three years prior to that.
Anyway, on to the tips …
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
The only sources of contrarianism this week are Consult The Ladder and Home Sweet Home, each of them in four games but overlapping only in the Blues v Cats game.
Other than that, it’s a clean sweep for favourites, which signals some startlingly high levels of agreement so early in the season.
Amongst the Margin Predictors, we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in only three games, including 16 points in the Sydney v Hawthorn game, 13 points in the Western Bulldogs v St Kilda game, and 10 points in the Carlton v Geelong game. In every other game the differences are in about the 7 to 8-point range.
MoSSBODS_Marg, MoSHBODS_Marg, and Bookie_9 are the most extreme Predictors in four of the nine games, and Bookie_9 in three.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there is only one game with a double-digit percentage point range in the probability estimates: the Western Bulldogs v St Kilda game where it is 13%. In every other game, the ranges are between 4 and 7% points.
Bookie_LPSO has the most extreme probability estimates in six games, MoSSBODS_Marg in five, and MoSHBODS_Marg in four.
WAGERS
As noted last week, disagreement begets bets, the converse of which is that agreement begets an absence of bets.
I think for the first time ever in a Round 2, Investors have no head-to-head or line bets this week.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
Even if the Head-to-Head Fund were allowed to wager on Away teams, it would still only be interested in a single wager, and that would be on the Saints.
To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
