2023 - Round 1 Results - Could Be Better, Could Be Worse
/No head-to-head tipster did better than 5.5 from 9 this week, which was the mark set by the TAB bookmaker and matched only by Home Sweet Home and MoSHBODS_Marg. Worst was Consult The Ladder’s 2.5 from 9, and the all-Tipster average came in at 4.5 from 9.
The Margin Predictors’ mean absolute errors (MAEs) covered a range from the freshly rebuilt and reoptimised ENS_Linear’s 28.6 points per game to MoSHPlay_Marg’s 32.0 points per game.
The all-Predictor average came in at 29.6 points per game, which is high by recent historical standards.
Log probability scores were mostly positive, except for MoSSBODS_Prob and MoSHPlay_Prob, with MoSHBODS_Prob recording the round’s best score.
WAGERING
A small profit this week, thanks entirely to the Head-to-Head Fund, which landed 3 from 5 wagers to finish up by 3.3c. The Line Fund made a small loss on a 2 from 5 performance, and the Over/Under Fund did the same on a 1 from 2 performance.
The overall round profit for the Combined Portfolio was 0.6c from a +7% ROT on a 0.08 turn.
