2024 - Round 6 : More Surgical

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The last of the eight-game rounds this week … until Round 12. Five of the contests are currently expected to be decided by roughly two goals or less, two more are expected to be decided by between about 15 and 20 points, leaving only the eighth as an apparently genuine candidate for blowout. That could, again this week, well make for a number of upsets, with the expected number of favourite wins just 5.1 from 8 and the average expected margin just 13.5 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Consult The Ladder is the prime advocate for contrarian tips this week, it tipping the underdog in five games. Home Sweet Home has been compelled to do the same in two games, and the RSMP twins and ENS_Linear in just one each.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in four of the eight games, including 19 points in the Swans v Suns game, 18 points in the Eagles v Dockers game, and 15 points in the Roos v Hawks game.

Bookie_9 has Extreme Predictor status in four games this week, with no-one else managing more than two.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there is only one game with a double-digit percentage point forecast range: Swans v Suns (19% points), thanks mostly to MoSSBODS_Prob.

MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, and Bookie_LPSO in five.

WAGERS

This week Investors have just two head-to-head bets totalling just over 5% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and four line bets totalling just under 14% of the Line Fund, as set out below.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The round’s Ready Reckoner reveals that risk is fairly concentrated this week, with Gold Coast carrying the largest risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) this week in that the difference between a Suns win and a loss by 21 points or more represents a swing of 7.7c in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is carried by Adelaide (5.4%), Hawthorn (3.8%), and then West Coast (2.3%).

So, just four teams carry the fate of the Funds …

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just over 9c, while a worst case set would snip just over 10c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.