2024 - Round 6 : Overs/Unders

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Overall, the MoS twins are once again expecting lower totals this weekend than are the bookmakers, and again by quite some margin in a number of games.

In terms of this week’s highests and lowests, there is agreement about the lows, but not the highs:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Carlton v GWS

  • Bookmakers: North Melbourne v Hawthorn (TAB also Adelaide v Essendon)

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: Hawthorn

  • Bookmakers: Fremantle

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

Investors have four wagers again this week, with all of them again unders.

The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers range from 9 to 11 points, and the wager sizes from 3.6% to 5.6% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared amongst all the forecasters in Round 5:

  • Game Margins: TAB and Sportsbet (tied)

  • Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Game Totals: MoSHBODS

Two season-long titles switched hands this week: Home Scores and Away Scores, both from MoSHBODS to MoSSBODS. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: Sportsbet 3 points ahead of the TAB and 25 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS 5 points ahead of MoShBODS and 30 points ahead of the TAB

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 19 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 28 points ahead of Sportsbet

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 19 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 28 points ahead of Sportsbet

MoSSBODS had four wagers last week, three unders with the TAB that finished 2 and 1, and one unders with Sportsbet that was a winner.

It ended then at 10 and 7 with the TAB, and at 2 and 1 with Sportsbet, for an overall 12 and 8 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 7 from 8 against the TAB and 6 from 8 against Sportsbet. That took MoSSBODS to 25 from 46 (54%) against the TAB and 26 from 46 (57%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS landed 5 from 9 against the TAB and Sportsbet, which took it to 22 from 46 (48%) against the TAB and 21 from 46 (46%) against Sportsbet.