2024 - Team Ratings After Round 5
/At the end of Round 5, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have the same teams in their Top 5s, but in different orders. Both have GWS in 1st, but MoSSBODS has Port Adelaide in 2nd and Brisbane Lions in 3rd while MoSHBODS has Brisbane Lions in 2nd and Geelong in 3rd. It puts Port Adelaide only in 5th.
On both Systems, still, the Ratings remain quite compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 12th are separated by only 4.1 Scoring Shots (which is about 13 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 12th are separated by only 14.1 points.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9926 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.45 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Giants, Power, and Swans, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Giants, Cats, and Power. On defence both Systems now have a Top 3 of Dockers, Dees, and Saints.
MoSSBODS now has 8 teams rated as above average on offence, while MoSHBODS has 9 teams so rated. Also, MoSSBODS has 11 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS also has 11 teams so rated.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.
On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are rated positively on offence and defence (up 1), 6 are rated negatively on both (up 1), one is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 4 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 2).
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.60, which is a little higher than last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked 13 teams this week, including moving Geelong into 1st and slipping Melbourne to 2nd and GWS to 3rd.
The only team other than Geelong that moved by more a single spot was Port Adelaide, who fell two spots into 5th, despite winning.
As we saw in the MoS Rating Systems, there reamins considerable Rating compression on MARS, with under 12 Rating Points separating 1st from 8th, and just under 12.5 Rating Points separating 1st from 10th. Previous analyses have suggested that a MARS Rating Point is equivalent to roughly 0.75 points, so these gaps equate to about 9 points.
There are now 12 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, and Gold Coast which is only a strong performances or two away from being the same.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the competition ladder (as per the MoS methodology), we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:
HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Essendon and maybe Sydney
LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Brisbane Lions and Collingwood
MARS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 13, ahead of MoSSBODS with 5, and MoSHBODS with ony 2.
MARS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of Fremantle and Western Bulldogs.
MoSHBODS an d MARS agree about the ranking of only 3 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS also only about 3, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 10 teams.
Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Geelong (4 spots) has the widest range of rankings, and that there are only five teams for whom the rankings span a range of more than two spots.
There are also two teams that the Systems unanimously rank the same way: West Coast and North Melbourne.
