2023 - Round 6 : Home For Sure

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We at least enter this week firm in the knowledge of which will be the round’s home teams.

We also enter it with an overall average bookmaker expected margin of 17.9 points per game, a tick under last week’s 17.6, and quite a bit little lower than the all-time average for Round 6s. It drives the all-Season average up to just under 14.5 points per game.

The week’s average includes five games expected to be won by less than 3 goals, three games expected to be won by between 3 and 4 goals, and just one expected to be won by about 7-and-a-half goals.

If we look at the ladder positions of the opposing teams this week, we find that we have:

  • One game where the teams are separated by just a single spot on the ladder

  • Three games where they’re separated by exactly three spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly four spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly five spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly eight spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly nine spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 11 spots

To the tips …

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This week’s underdog support comes solely from Home Sweet Home (2 games), Consult The Ladder (4 games), and RSMP_Simple and the MoS twins (all in 1 game each)

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in six games, including 17 points in the Power v Eagles game, 15 points in the Suns v Roos game, and 14 points in the Dees v Tigers game.

Extreme Predictor status is a bit more well-distributed this week with the MoS twins having that honour in four games each, and no other Predictor managing it in more than three games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only three games with double-digit percentage point ranges: Dees v Tigers (13% points), Blues v Saints (12% points), and Suns v Roos (12% points).

The MoS twins have the most extreme probability estimates in five games each, and Bookie_LPSO and Bookie_OE in four each.

WAGERS

This week, there are two head-to-head wagers totalling 7% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and three line wagers totalling just over 3% of the Line Fund. The head-to-head wagers are 2.3% and 4.7% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line wagers range in size from 0.7% to 1.7% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Both of the head-to-head, and one of the line bets are on favourites. In aggregate, all five bets represent just over 4% of the original Combined Portfolio.

To be frank, the Ready Reckoner is a pain to assemble, so let’s do it live, instead:

FREMANTLE

  • Fremantle win: 2.3% x 30% x 0.86 = +0.6c

  • Fremantle draw: 2.3% x 30% x (1.86/2 - 1) = -0.1c

  • Fremantle lose: -2.3% x 30% = -0.7c

WEST COAST

  • West Coast win, draw, or lose by 46 points or less: 0.7% x 65% x 0.9 = +0.4c

  • Otherwise: -0.7% x 65% = -0.5c

GOLD COAST

  • Gold Coast win by 15 points or more: 4.7% x 30% x 0.43 + 0.8% x 65% x 0.9 = +1.1c

  • Gold Coast win by 1 to 14 points: 4.7% x 30% x 0.43 - 0.8% x 65% = +0.1c

  • Draw: 4.7% x 30% x (1.43/2-1) - 0.8% x 65% = -1c

  • Gold Coast lose: -4.7% x 30% - 0.8% x 65% = -2c

RICHMOND

  • Richmond win, draw, or lose by 23 points or less: 1.7% x 65% x 0.9 = +1c

  • Otherwise: -1.7% x 65% = -1.1c

Gold Coast clearly carries the most risk for Investors this weekend, with the difference between best and worst results for them equalling 3.1% of the original Combined Portfolio. The next-most risk is carried by Richmond (2.1%), then Fremantle (1.3%) and, finally, West Coast (0.9%).

A best-case set of results will see the Combined Portfolio increase by 3.1c, and a worst-case set will see it fall by 4.2c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.