2023 - Round 6 : Overs/Unders

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The twins have again come in a little above the bookmakers on expected Totals, but only by about a half a goal per game.

This week’s highests and lowests data reflect moderate levels of disagreement:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Gold Coast v North Melbourne

  • Bookmakers: Port Adelaide v West Coast

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Carlton v St Kilda

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSHBODS: Gold Coast

  • MoSSBODS and Bookmakers: Port Adelaide

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

Investors have five wagers this week, having passed on a sixth due to forecast rain in the Suns v Roos game.

(There is no BOM forecast for the ANZAC day game, by the way, so the overs bet in that game is a bit more speculative than the others. Still, who would predict rain for Melbourne in April?)

The estimated overlay for the games wagered upon range from 6.5 to about 14 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) this week were dominated by the MoS twins, with MoSSBODS taking Game Margins and Home Team Scores, and MoSHBODS Away Team Scores and Total Scores. These results were no doubt helped by the much less prevalent than expected rainfall.

MoSSBODS now holds onto the season-long best MAE for Game Margins, and MoSHBODS still for Away Team Scores, with Sportsbet retaining Game Totals and Home Team Scores.

The leads are as follows:

Game Margins: MoSSBODS 2.7 points ahead of the TAB, and 4.2 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: Sportsbet 10.5 points ahead of the TAB (and 63 points ahead of MoSSBODS)

Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 13 points ahead of MoSSBODS (and 26 points ahead of the TAB)

Game Totals: Sportsbet 4.7 points ahead of MoSHBODS (and 15.1 points ahead of MoSSBODS)

MoSSBODS had onewagers last week, a lone successful unders wager with Sportsbet.

Across all games, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS both recorded 6 from 9 results against the TAB, and 5 from 9 results against Sportsbet.

That moved MoSSBODS to a 21 from 45 (47%) record against the TAB, and a 20 from 45 (44% ) record against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS now has a 23 from 45 (51%) record against the TAB, and a 23 from 45 (51%) record against Sportsbet.