2023 - Team Ratings After Round 5
/MoSSBODS left its Top 5 teams unchanced this week, despite the fact that four of them shed Rating Points, while MoSHBODS re-ranked all but five of the teams.
In the end, MoSSBODS had a Top 3 of Collingwood, Geelong, and Melbourne, and MoSHBODS had a Top 3 of Collingwood, Geelong, and Sydney.
Overall, nine teams were re-ranked by MoSSBODS, and 12 by MoSHBODS, five by multiple spots on MoSSBODS, and eight by multiple spots on MoSHBODS. Only two teams moved by more than two spots on MoSSBODS, and that was Essendon climbing three spots into 10th, and North Melbourne falling three spots into 18th. On MoSHBODS, we had Brisbane Lions up four places into 5th, Essendon up four places into 9th, Adelaide up three places into 7th, and Richmond down four places into 12th.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9853.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Pies, Cats, and Swans, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Swans, and Lions, while on defence we find both Systems with a Top 3 of Saints, Pies, and Cats.
Both Systems now have nine teams as above-average on offence (though the two sets of nine are different in that MoSSBODS includes Carlton, and MoSHBODS Richmond), while both Systems have the same 10 teams as above-average on defence.
To put the latest MoSSBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of all teams after Round 5 across V/AFL history.
Collingwood and Geelong are currently the only teams that have Combined Ratings that are in the top 50% of teams that eventually went on to make the Grand Final.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current Rating.
On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 6 are rated negatively on both (no change), 2 are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 3 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 1). You can see from the chart that Fremantle and, in particular, St Kilda still have quite unusual pairings of fairly low offensive and fairly high defensive ratings.
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.58, which is down a little on last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked only eight teams this week, and none of them from the Bottom 6.
Geelong has gone top, ousting Melbourne, while Sydney remains in 3rd place.
The Lions, in 4th, were one of only two teams climbing multiple spots, the other Essendon, up three spots into 9th. Two teams fell multiple spots: Richmond, down three spots into 7th, and Carlton, down three spots into 11th.
There are now 11 teams rated average or better-than-average by MARS, with Western Bulldogs on 998.7, and Adelaide on 998.4 only just missing that list.
The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at 59 Rating Points, which is up another 4 Rating Points on where it was last week. The gap between first and eighth still stands at just under 20 Rating Points.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:
HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: St Kilda, Essendon, Carlton, and North Melbourne
LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Geelong
MARS provides the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for 11 of the teams. MARS is especially different in terms of its Collingwood, Adelaide, and Richmond rankings.
MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for seven of the teams, and MoSHBODS for three.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Adelaide and Richmond (6 spots) have the widest range of rankings, while 12 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots, including Gold Coast, GWS, and North Melbourne, for which all three Systems have the same ranking.
