2022 - Team Ratings After Round 24

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There was movement towards the top of the two Rating Systems this week with Sydney leap frogging Melbourne into 2nd on both. Further down there were four more moves on MoSSBODS, the largest Fremantle’s 4-spot drop into 10th, and four more on MoSHBODS as well, the largest there being Collingwood’s 3-spot climb to 7th.

Ten teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and the same number are rated as above-average on MoSHBODS.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings remains very high, and now stands at +0.995. The correlation on defence alone is +0.990 and on offence alone +0.994.

The animation below maps the path that each 2022 team has followed to reach its current Rating.

Or, if you prefer a static view of the teams’ combined MoSSBODS Ratings, here’s an updated version of that chart

And here’s the updated MoSHBODS version.

To get some historical context for the overall quality of this year’s Finalists, here, firstly is a chart showing the end of Home-and-Away season ratings of all the Finalists since 2000, and where those teams subsequently finished.

And here’s what that looks like if you average across all Finalists in a given year.

On the Component Ratings, on offence, we find both Systems still with a Top 3 of Tigers, Cats, and Swans, while on defence, we find both still with a Top 3 of Cats, Dees, and Dockers.

On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 6 are rated negatively on both (no change), none is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 4 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.67, which is down a little compared to last week.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked only two teams this week, swapping Collingwood into 9th, despite their loss, and dropping Carlton to 10th.

In terms of groupings, we now have, according to MARS, roughly:

  • Geelong, Melbourne, and Sydney (1,033 to 1,042)

  • Richmond, Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and Fremantle (1,011 to 1,023)

  • Collingwood, Carlton, St Kilda, and Gold Coast (994 to 1,003)

  • GWS, Hawthorn, Essendon, and Adelaide (977 to 983)

  • West Coast and North Melbourne (936 to 950)

Ten teams are rated as better-than-average by MARS, with St Kilda rated just under than mark at 997.

The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at just under 106 Rating Points, which is down about 1 Rating Point on last week.

MARS currently has the outright most-extreme ranking for nine of the teams, MoSSBODS for three, and MoSHBODS for just two.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agree about the ranking of 12 teams, MoSHBODS and MARS about 8 teams, and MoSSBODS and MARS about 8 teams, also.

If we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Brisbane Lions (5 spots) has the widest range of rankings, and that the range is just two spots or less for 16 of the remaining 17 teams.

The three Systems now have the same ranking for Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, North Melbourne, Richmond, St Kilda, and West Coast.