2022 - Round 25 : Appropriately Trained

/

Week 2 of the Finals sees Melbourne, the team from 2nd on the ladder, meet Brisbane Lions from 6th, and Collingwood from 4th meet Fremantle from 5th.

As you can see from the table at right, both of those clashes have tended to go better for the higher-ranked teams, although the 4th v 5th matchup has over twice the data.

That success is broadly reflected in the current markets where we find the Dees as about 3-goal favourites and the Pies as about 2-goal favourites.

Looking briefly back at last week, the two tables below provide updated statistics about the Week 1 and all-week performance of teams from each ladder position.

On then to this weeks’ forecasts.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Also consistent with the historical superiority of home teams in semi-finals is the fact that there are no contrarian head-to-head tips this week, which means that MoSHBODS_Marg’s one tip lead is safe for another week.

The Margin Predictors are all also tipping home team wins, but MoSHBODS_Marg is doing it most emphatically if only slightly more enthusiastically than MoSSBODS_Marg. Both of those algorithms base their Venue Performance Values on Finals history since 1997, which has resulted in MoSSBODS_Marg assessing Melbourne’s home advantage as being worth almost 6 scoring shots and Collingwood’s as worth almost 5 scoring shots, and MoSHBODS_Marg assessing them as about 3-and-a-half goals for Melbourne, and about 3 goals for Collingwood. These figures are partly as high as they are because both opponents need to travel from interstate. Whether they are too high in the modern era is yet to be determined.

MoSHBODS_Marg currently sits in third on the Leaderboard and trails MoSSBODS_Marg in first by about 38 points. At best, MoSHBODS_Marg will shave 3 points off that gap this weekend.

The MoS twins are also the most bullish about the home teams’ chances amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, although not so much that their positions atop that Leaderboard are in any risk.

Such are the gaps between the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, and such are their probability estimates, that no set of results this week will change their ordering.

WAGERS

With the relatively extreme opinions of the MoS twins this week, it’s fairly inevitable that Investors should find themselves with head-to-head wagers in both games, and a line wager in one.

(Please click on the image to access a larger version.)

The risk and reward calculations for these wagers are as follows:

  • Melbourne wins by 19 points or more: 5.3% x 0.38 x 30% + 3% x 0.9 x 65% = +2.3c

  • Melbourne wins by 1 to 18 points: 5.3% x 0.38 x 30% - 3% x 65% = -1.3c

  • Melbourne draws: 5.3% x (1.38/2-1) x 30% - 3% x 65% = -2.4c

  • Melbourne loses: -5.3% x 30% - 3% x 65% = -3.5c

  • Collingwood wins: 4% x 0.5 x 30% = +0.6c

  • Collingwood draws: 4% x (1.5/2-1) x 30% = -0.3c

  • Collingwood loses: -4% x 30% = -1.2c

In aggregate, the best case is a gain of just under 3c, and the worst case a loss of just under 5c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.