2021 - Round 23 - Update
/We now have the venue and markets for the St Kilda v Fremantle game.
The final forecasts, except those for MoSHPlay, appear below.
Details underpinning the MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS forecasts are as follows:
Investors also now have a 2.6% wager on St Kilda, head-to-head.
I realised I didn’t explain choosing the Adelaide +1.5 at $1.90 bet over the +2.5 at $1.85 option. That decision was based on the expected return, assuming that the margin for that game is Normally distributed with a mean equal to MoSSBODS’ estimate of 15.8, and a standard deviation of 35 points.
We then have:
For +2.5 at $1.85 an expected return per unit of NORMDIST(15.8,-2.5,35,TRUE)*0.85 = 0.59
For +1.5 at $1.90 an expected return per unit of NORMDIST(15.8,-1.5,35,TRUE)*0.9 = 0.62
