2021 - Round 23 : Unnecessarily Brave

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There’s still one game yet to find a venue this week, but let’s look at what we have for the eight games where we do have certainty and markets.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Richmond and Adelaide are the sources of considerable contrarianism this week amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, with Consult The Ladder’s Port Adelaide and Melbourne tips, Home Sweet Home’s Carlton tip, and MoSSBODS_Marg’s Melbourne tip the only other examples.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, the big forecast ranges are in the Carlton v GWS (23 points), Adelaide v North Melbourne (17 points), and Brisbane v West Coast (16 points) games.

So far, MoSSBODS_Marg, MoSHBODS_Marg, and Bookie_3 have a disproportionate share of the most extreme predictions.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors the large probability estimate ranges have come in the Carlton v GWS (22% points) and Adelaide v North Melbourne (19% points) games.

MoSSBODS_Prob, Bookie_RE and Bookie_LPSO have dominant shares of the extreme estimates.

WAGERS

In an ideal year, Investors will have locked in a reasonable profit come the last round of the home and away season, and the final round, where late and significant team changes relative to previous weeks are quite common, will see limited wagering.

This is far from an ideal year …

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Five line bets range in size from 0.4% to 3.3% of the original Line Fund, and five head-to-head bets range from 0.7% to 8.7% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, which means that, in total, a ludicrous 10% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk.

I think that calls for a Ready Reckoner to reckon the risk.

The Lions and Crows results both entail a potential swing in the value of the Combined Portfolio of almost 5c, and the Blues result a swing of 4.6c, which make the 1.9c swing on the Dogs result and the 1,8c swing on the Tigers result look tiny by comparison.

A best-case set of results would see the price of the Combined Portfolio increase by almost 8c and a worst-case set would see it decrease by about 10c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.