2021 - Team Ratings After Round 8
/On MoSSBODS this week, Geelong climbed into 2nd over Melbourne and Richmond, as all but five of the two were re-ranked. Sydney and Fremantle, along with Geelong, were the only teams to climb multiple spots, while Gold Coast was the only team to fall multiple spots.
Over on MoSHBODS, Geelong also climbed two spots, but only into 3rd, while St Kilda climbed three spots, and Gold Coast and Collingwood fell two spots.
So, MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Dees, while MoSHBODS has Dogs, Dees, and Cats.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9982, and the Rating gap between 1st and 8th stands at 5.8 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS (down 0.6 Scoring Shots), and 21.7 Points on MoSHBODS (down 1.7 points).
On the Component Ratings, on Offence MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Blues, while MoSHBODS has Dogs, Blues, and Cats. On Defence they both now have Top 3s of Dees, Cats, and Power.
On MoSSBODS, 6 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 6 are rated negatively on both (down 1), 3 are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (up 1), and 3 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.642, which is down a little on last week’s number.
In the animation below, we can see the path that each team has taken to arrive at its current Rating.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked 13 teams this week, including elevating Geelong from 3rd into 1st, and Port Adelaide from 5th into 2nd, and demoting Richmond from 1st into 6th.
Other teams moving by more than a single spot were: St Kilda (up 2), and Fremantle (down 2).
With GWS now Rated at 998.6, MARS has eight teams rated as better-than-average, with seven more Rated 990 or above.
The Rating gap between first and last now stands at just under 61 Rating Points (up 4 Rating Points). By comparison, at the same point last year the range was only 43.5 Rating Points.
The gap between 1st and 8th is about 23 Rating Points, which equates to roughly 16 points at a neutral venue.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find the highest differences for Sydney where Rating System rankings are relatively lower than Ladder position, and for, to some extent, Richmond, Carlton, and Essendon where Rating System rankings are relatively higher than Ladder position.
MARS continues to provide the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking now for 12 of the teams, with Collingwood the most notable example.
By comparison, MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for no team, and MoSHBODS has it for six.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now agree about the ranking of 12 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about the ranking of six teams, and MoSHBODS and MARS about the ranking of five teams.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Carlton, Essendon and Port Adelaide (4 spots) have the widest range of rankings, while 13 teams have rankings that differ by no more than 2 spots, including Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, Hawthorn, and North Melbourne, for which all three Systems have the same ranking.
