2021 - Round 9 : Towards The Turn

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This week looks a bit like last week, at least in terms of the bookmaker margins. The average expected margin of 17.3 points per game (according to the TAB bookmaker) is about 1 point per game lower, and there are again only two games expected to be decided by less than 2 goals, and five expected to be decided by more than 3 goals.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder aside, the only contrarian head-to-head tipping has come from the MoS twins, who both expect the Dogs to prevail over the Power.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we have double-digit ranges in seven games, including ranges as large as 15 points in the Dees v Blues, and Eagles v Crows games.

Of the 18 extreme forecasts, five of them belong to Bookie_3, four to MoSSBODS_Marg, three to MoSHBODS_Marg and Bookie_9, and two to ENS_Linear.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there are double-digit percentage point ranges only in the Power v Dogs (16% points), and Dees v Blues (14% points) games.

MoSHBODS_Prob and Bookie_LPSO have six of the extreme estimates, MoSSBODS_Prob has four, and Bookie_OE has two.

WAGERS

Investors face five wagers this week, three head-to-head wagers representing 7.5% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and two line wagers representing just over 2% of the Line Fund. In aggregate, they represent 3.6% of the original Combined Portfolio.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The various scenarios for each wagered-upon game in terms of its possible effects on the value of the Combined Portfolio are then as follows:

  • Hawthorn win: 4.2% x 0.48 x 30% = +0.6%

  • Hawthorn draw: 4.2% x (1.48/2-1) x 30% = -0.3%

  • Hawthorn loss: 4.2% x 30% = -1.3%

  • Gold Coast win: 0.8% x 2.3 x 30% = +0.6%

  • Gold Coast draw: 0.8% x (3.3/2-1) x 30% = +0.2%

  • Gold Coast loss: 0.8% x 30% = -0.2%

  • Essendon win: 2.5% x 0.8 x 30% = +0.6%

  • Essendon draw: 2.5% x (1.8/2-1) x 30% = -0.1%

  • Essendon loss: 2.5% x 30% = -0.8%

  • Western Bulldogs lose by 7 points or less: 1.2% x 0.9 x 60% = +0.6%

  • Otherwise: -1.2% x 60% = -0.7%

  • Carlton lose by 22 points or less: 1% x 0.9 x 60% = +0.5%

  • Otherwise: -1% x 60% = -0.6%

Worst case is a loss of 3.6% of the Combined Portfolio, and best case is a gain of 2.9%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.