2020 - Team Ratings After Round 6
/Port Adelaide still clings to top spot on MoSSBODS, but now lies 2nd to Collingwood on MoSHBODS after a round in which neither of the Systems felt Port did enough against the Giants to maintain their previous Rating.
Collingwood did, however, rise by one spot on MoSSBODS, and is now in 2nd there, ahead of the Lions.
Just three teams moved by more than two places on MoSSBODS, the Blues rising by three, and the Dogs and Dees falling by two. On MoSHBODS, only two teams moved by more than a spot, with the Blues climbing three, and the Dogs falling two.
Thirteen teams, including all of the teams ranked 4th through 12th, are now ranked the same on both Systems, and none are ranked more than one spot differently.
In terms of Rating compression, on MoSSBODS, 4th and 14th are now separated by only 5.2 Scoring Shots, while on MoSHBODS 3rd and 11th are separated by only 13.9 points.
Based on the similarity of Combined Rating, you could form the following rough groups based on the latest results:
Top Tier (span 2 Scoring Shots / 8.4 Points): Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Brisbane Lions, Geelong, and Richmond (no change)
Middle Tier (span 1.5 Scoring Shots / 10.4 Points): Carlton, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, and GWS (Melbourne exit)
Bottom Tier (span 2.0 Scoring Shots / 8.8 Points): Essendon, Melbourne, West Coast, North Melbourne, Sydney, and Fremantle (Melbourne join)
Outliers: Gold Coast, Adelaide (no change)
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS still with a Top 3 of Lions, Power and Cats, while on defence, MoSSBODS has retained Collingwood in 1st, and swapped Richmond into 2nd at the expense of Port Adelaide, while MoSHBODS has retained the same Top 3 of Collingwood, Port Adelaide, and Richmond.
On MoSSBODS, only 4 teams are rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 3 are rated negatively on both (down 2), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and an astonishing 11 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 2). As a result, the correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings is just +0.60.
It’s still the case that no teams are in different quadrants under the two Systems.
And, finally, to MARS.
It re-ranked 11 teams this week, including slotting the Pies into 2nd and dropping the Power into 3rd.
West Coast was one of three teams to climb by two spots, the others being Essendon and Carlton. Just two teams fell multiple spots though, with the Hawks and Dogs both sliding two places each.
Just nine teams are now rated as better-than-average, and the gap between the 1st- and 9th-ranked team is only 18.1 Rating Points (probably the equivalent of about 13 or 14 points in a typical season with full-length quarters). The gap between 6th and 13th is even smaller at just 12.5 Rating Points. Forming rough team groups, as we did for the MoS twins, we might get:
Top Tier (span 9 Rating Points): Geelong, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Richmond, and Brisbane Lions (no change)
Middle Tier (span 10 Rating Points): GWS, West Coast, Essendon, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, and North Melbourne (no change)
Bottom Tier (span 6.5 Rating Points): Sydney, St Kilda, Carlton, Fremantle, and Melbourne (no change)
Outliers: Gold Coast, Adelaide
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder (using competition points per game as the primary basis for that ordering), we still find Essendon and Gold Coast as the teams highest on the ladder ranked lowest by the Systems, and Hawthorn as the team lowest on the ladder ranked highest by the Systems.
MARS continues to provide the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for 17 of the teams, missing only Collingwood.
By comparison, MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for only two teams (Port Adelaide and North Melbourne), and MoSHBODS also only for two teams (Collingwood and West Coast).
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Carlton (8 spots), and West Coast (7 spots) have the widest range of rankings, though nine teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots.
There is now no team about whose ranking all three Systems completely agree.
