2020 - Round 7 : Playing At Home

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In what seems likely to be another challenging round in which to tip winners, the TAB Bookmaker has posted single-digit lines for five of the games, and sub 3 goal lines for the other four. The average expected margin is therefore only 8.1 points per game.

Who in their proverbial right mind would try to make forecasts under those circumstances?

To the MoS forecasters then.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

It’s the ladder-leading Home Sweet Home, fresh off the back of tipping all 9 winners last week, that’s providing one-third of the contrarian head-to-head tipping this week, with last-placed Consult The Ladder providing another one-quarter.

The remainder has come from ENS_Linear in the Thursday night game, and the MoS twins in the Friday and first Saturday games.

(I had a query this week about the animals next to some of the head-to-head tips. They’re dogs - though I admit the resolution is poor - and they denote a tip that is for the underdog.)

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are forecasts on either side of zero in the first three games but in no other, and ranges of 10 points or less in seven games. The largest range is for that Swans v Suns game, where the MoS twins’ confidence in Sydney has stretched it to 16 points. There’s also a 15 point range in the Perth derby where it is now the MoS twins’ relative lack of confidence in West Coast that stretched the range.

The mean expected margin across all games and all Predictors an absurd 6.8 points per game, which is a little over a point per game smaller than the bookmaker’s almost-as-absurd average.

MoSSBODS_Marg has more of the week’s most extreme forecasts than any other Predictor, recording such a forecast in five games, albeit by no more than about four points in any single game. ENS_Linear is most extreme in four contests.

Lastly, turning to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range of probability estimates in percentage point terms in the Sydney v Gold Coast game where it’s 25% points, followed by the Fremantle v West Coast game where it’s 20% points. No other games has a range greater than 10% points so, compared to last week, there’s a lot more agreement about the teams’ respective chances.

MoSSBODS_Prob has the round's most extreme estimates in six contests, Bookie_RE in four, and MoSHBODS_Prob and Bookie_OE in three each.

WAGERS

This week’s wagering is far more concentrated than last week’s, with just three teams carrying the entirety of the wagering effort.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Of the three. it’s Sydney that’s carrying most of this week’s risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes), with the difference between successful and unsuccessful wagers on them representing 4.2% of the original Combined Portfolio, as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

We also have Fremantle controlling a 3.7% swing, and Brisbane Lions a baby 0.2% swing.

(You might notice that I’ve taken Fremantle +18.5 at $1.85 when $1.90 was on offer at BetEasy. Lately, BetEasy have been capping my wagers so I took what was on offer at the TAB, worried that the line might move the wrong way before I could get fully set at BetEasy. It really shouldn’t be this complicated for someone who bets the relatively small amounts that I do.)

Anyway, in total, just over 4% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk, and the maximum upside is 4%.

To finish, here are MoSS2020's and MoSH2020's opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.