2020 - Round 7 : Overs/Unders

As was the case last weekend, there’s agreement in the broad but disagreement in the detail when you look at the MoS twins’ and the bookmakers’ score forecasts this week, with all four expecting an average score per game of around 123 points, but differences in specific games again as large as two goals.

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The Cats v Pies game is the one with the most significant levels of disagreement, the MoS twins expecting about two goals more than do the bookmakers, but that still hasn’t prevented that game from being all four forecaster’s lowest-scoring game.

Overall, we have:

• HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Giants v Lions

  • TAB and Easybet: Blues v Power

• LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Cats v Pies

  HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS: Lions

  • MoSHBODS: Power and Saints

  • Easybet and TAB: Power

  LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Suns

  • TAB and Easybet: Cats

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has again found four games worthy of wagers this week, but is passing on the first of them, which would have been an overs bet at a forecasted damp Perth Stadium.

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Estimated overlays run from a barely bet-permitting 6.0 points to a somewhat more comfortable 11.6 points.

In Round 6, MoSHBODS took two of the four Mean Absolute Error (MAE) honours (Game Margins and Home Team Scores), while Easybet produced lowest MAEs for Away Team Scores and Game Totals.

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That allowed Easybet to take the season-long lead for Away Team scores, but left MoSSBODS still leading all-comers on Game Margins and Home Team Scores, and MoSHBODS leading on Game Totals.

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In games on which we had wagers in Round 5, MoSSBODS went 1 and 1 against the TAB, and 0 and 3 against Easybet, leaving it with a 73% success rate against the TAB, and a 47% rate against Easybet.

Across all games, MoSSBODS is now 27 from 53 (51%) against both the TAB and Easybet, while MoSSBODS is 28 from 53 (53%) against both.