2018 - Round 5 Results - Better
/When C_Marg produces the round's lowest mean absolute error (MAE), you know it's been a slightly unusual week.
Not that C_Marg did all that well as a Head-to-Head Tipster, its 4.5 from 9 only fractionally above the all-Tipster average of 4.5 from 9.
Consult The Ladder bagged the round's best score of 5.5 from 9, which was good enough to move it into a tie for second with Bookie Knows Best and Consult The Ladder, all of them now one tip adrift of ENS_Linear on 29.5 from 45 (66%).
The MoS twins suffered slightly different fates on margin prediction, MoSHBODS_Marg producing one of the highest MAEs at 31.8 points per game, and MoSSBODS_Marg one of the lowest at 29.6 points per game, making it one of only four Predictors to return a sub-30 MAE for the round. They switched places on the Leaderboard this week, MoSSBODS_Marg grabbing third-last and relegating MoSHBODS_Marg to second-last ahead only of C_Marg.
Bookie_9 still heads that Leaderboard.
C_Prob recorded the round's highest and only positive Log Probability Score (LPS), but remains last for the season amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors. MoSSBODS_Prob returned the second-best LPS of the round, which enabled it to close the gap to the three bookmaker-based Predictors who still head the table. Bookie_LPSO still heads that trio.
WAGERS
Such were the sizes of the bets that it seemed unlikely the Lions could lose and yet the Combined Portfolio still turn a profit for the round but in the end both of these events did occur.
That profit came about largely due to a 5 from 6 performance from the Overs/Unders Fund, who was denied a perfect 6 from 6 by a single behind in the Dockers v Dogs game.
Remarkably, despite dropping 8c on the Lions game, the Head-to-Head Fund still managed to finish in the black, as did the Line Fund on the back of a 3 from 4 performance.
That leaves the Combined Portfolio down by only 0.7c now on the season, the result of a -1.6% ROI on about a 0.46 turn. And that is, much better.
