2018 - Team Ratings After Round 5

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MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, like reality show judges, continued their brutal ways this week, re-ranking teams by as many as six places.

It clearly still is the sorting part of the season.

On MoSSBODS now, however, less than three Scoring Shots separate Geelong in 4th from Port Adelaide in 11th, while on MoSHBODS less than 10 points separate West Coast in 4th from Port Adelaide in 10th, so there's still plenty of opportunity for further re-rankings on both Systems.

Chief amongst the moves this week were those for:

  • the Cats, up six spots on MoSSBODS and three on MoSHBODS
  • the Roos, up five spots on both MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS (on the back of significant climbs last week as well)
  • the Dockers. up two spots on MoSSBODS and three on MoSHBODS
  • the Crows, up two spots on both
  • the Hawks, down six spots on MoSSBODS and three on MoSHBODS
  • the Power, down six spots on MoSSBODS and two on MoSHBODS
  • the Dogs, down two spots on MoSSBODS and three on MoSHBODS

That left MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS with the same Top 3 of Richmond, GWS, and Collingwood, and sees the two Systems differing by more than two places only in the ranking of Melbourne (9th on MoSSBODS and 12th on MoSHBODS). So, for the most part, the ranking agitation of Round 5 has served mostly to better align the two System's rankings.

Turning next to the component offensive and defensive ratings we find, again this week, significant team re-ratings and re-rankings here too. MoSSBODS re-ranked 12 teams on offence and 11 on defence, while MoSHBODS re-ranked 13 on offence and 14 on offence.

On offence now, MoSSBODS has the ordering as GWS, Richmond and then Geelong, while MoSHBODS has it as Richmond, GWS and then Adelaide.

On defence both agree on a Top 3 of Richmond, Collingwood and then GWS, the latter two teams swapping positions this week on both Systems.

Looking across all 18 teams we find that on both offence and defence, no team is now ranked more than two places differently by the two Systems.

Next, our weekly look at how the 2018 teams' MoSSBODS Ratings compare with those of previous Grand Finalists and other teams at the same point in the season (ie after Round 5). 

After another weekend of low scoring we're still lacking a truly dominant offensive team, though Richmond are quickly becoming one of the best defensive teams of all time - at least at the equivalent point in the season - according to MoSSBODS' ratings.

As well, the Lions, Suns and Blues are now rated such that a Grand Final berth would seem highly improbable, while St Kilda, the Western Bulldogs and Essendon are rated such that it would seem only slightly less unlikely.

On next then to MoS' Traditional Rating Systems, ChiPS and MARS, both of which re-ranked the majority of teams this weekend.

ChiPS though, re-ranked only Geelong (up 3), Collingwood (up 3), and Sydney (down 3) by more than a couple of spots this, while MARS re-ranked no teams at all by this much, so the moves whilst multitudinous in number weren't monumental in size.

That left the two Systems differing by more than two places in their rankings of:

  • Collingwood (ranked 4th on ChiPS and 8th on MARS)
  • Hawthorn (ranked 6th on ChiPS and 9th on MARS)
  • North Melbourne (ranked 7th on ChiPS and 10th on MARS)
  • Sydney (ranked 8th on ChiPS and 3rd on MARS)
  • Adelaide (ranked 9th on ChiPS and 2nd on MARS)
  • Port Adelaide (ranked 10th on ChiPS and 7th on MARS)

And, finally, broadening our comparison to look across the team rankings of all four Systems, comparing them with the current competition ladder, we find that:

  • West Coast, North Melbourne, Sydney and Gold Coast's ladder positions are most different from their average Rating System ranking. West, Gold Coast and North Melbourne are lower, and North Melbourne higher on the ladder than their ratings would lead us to expect, while Sydney's is lower (especially according to MARS, who still ranks them 3rd).
  • Adelaide (1st to 9th) is ranked seven places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • Collingwood (3rd to 8th) and Sydney (3rd to 6th) are ranked five places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • Hawthorn (6th to 10th) and Port Adelaide (7th to 11th) are both ranked four places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • No other team is ranked more than three places differently across the Rating Systems.

It was quite a round for team re-ratings and re-rankings, but it feels as though some sort of hierarchy is beginning to assert itself.