2018 - Round 5 : Overs/Unders Update

/

This week marks the first round of the season where both the TAB and Centrebet bookmakers estimate that the nine games will average under 180 points.

The MoS twins have, again, come up with even smaller expected totals, but only about four or five points lower than the bookmakers'.

We have:

MOST LIKELY HIGH-SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS : Port Adelaide v Geelong
  • MoSHBODS : Port Adelaide v Geelong, or Collingwood v Essendon
  • TAB and Centrebet : North Melbourne v Hawthorn

MOST LIKELY LOW-SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS : Carlton v West Coast
  • MoSHBODS: St Kilda v GWS
  • TAB and Centrebet : Fremantle v Western Bulldogs

MOST LIKELY HIGH-SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS : Port Adelaide
  • MoSHBODS : Brisbane Lions
  • TAB : West Coast
  • Centrebet : GWS or West Coast

MOST LIKELY LOW-SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS : Carlton or Melbourne
  • MoSHBODS : Carlton or Gold Coast
  • TAB and Centrebet : Carlton
  • Centrebet : Brisbane Lions

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have surprisingly different opinions in a number of games this week, probably most notably in the Lions v Suns game where MoSHBODS has the Lions scoring 12 more points than MoSSBODS has them scoring, and has the Suns scoring 14 points fewer (which, coincidentally, means that MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS are both forecasting the same total score after the two point adjustment to the Suns' score is reveresed out for the MoSHBODS game total calculation).

Undaunted by the fact that the game MoSHBODS predicted to be highest-scoring last weekend wound up being the lowest-scoring, and the game it predicted to be lowest-scoring wound up being the highest-scoring, I'll again use MoSHBODS' opinions to estimate probabilities for high- and low-scoring teams and games in Round 5.

This week we need to include five teams before we have a better than even-money chance at identifying the round's high-scorer, first amongst them Brisbane Lions for whom MoSHBODS has a particularly soft spot this week (mainly because it believes the Gabba is a very kind venue for the Lions relative to the Suns).

Four teams, however, is all that's required to capture 50% of the low-scoring potential in the round, with Gold Coast edging out Carlton as the team very marginally more likely to wind up as the lowest scorer.

The simulations can't split the Pies v Dons, and the Power v Cats games as the round's likely high-scoring game, but estimate the probability of the Saints v Giants game finishing as the lowest-scoring at just over 14%.

Given last week's results and the contrarian spirit that seems to have affected MoSHBODS this week, you'd be wise to view these estimates with even more suspicion than you might ordinarily.

WAGERS

MoSSBODS too has gotten into the entrepreneurial spirit and has gone with six bets, five of them unders wagers, and one an overs bet (in a game, as is now customary, where the forecast is for rain). 

In four of the games where we've wagers, the estimated overlays are double-digit, including the game in which we've the overs bet and the inclement forecast. Let's hope that's enough.

PERFORMANCE TO DATE

Last week, MoSSBODS landed just 1 from 4 wagers, though it was denied a 2 and 2 result only by the final behind in the Essendon v Port Adelaide game.

Across the entire set of games it managed a 4 from 9 score against the TAB and 5 from 9 against Centrebet, while MoSHBODS managed only 4 from 9 against both bookmakers.

MoSHBODS, however, had the best mean absolute error (MAE) of the round on game margins and on away team scores, with the TAB taking that honour for home team scores and game totals.

Across the entire season to date, the TAB remains best for game margins, but is now also best for home scores, leaving Centrebet as best now only for away team scores, and game totals.