2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R0

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This year’s post Round 0 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Hawthorn, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs: about 80 to 85% chance of being finalists; 55-65% chances of Top 4; 20% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong, Port Adelaide, GWS: about 60-65% chances of being finalists; 25-35% chances of Top 4; 5-8% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Fremantle, Carlton, Adelaide, Sydney: about 50% chances of being finalists; 20% chances of Top 4; 2-4% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Melbourne, St Kilda, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Essendon: about 25-35% chances of being finalists; 10-15% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Richmond, West Coast, North Melbourne: about 1-7% chances of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; tiny chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.

Looking at the changes, as we’d expect the teams most affected are the four that played over the weekend and for whom the main estimated changes are as follows:

  • Hawthorn: 9% point increase (to 87%) in probability of playing Finals; 12% point increase (to 63%) of finishing top 4

  • GWS: 13% point increase (to 58%) in probability of playing Finals; 8% increase (to 27%) of finishing top 4

  • Sydney: 10% point decrease (to 47%) in probability of playing Finals; 10% point increase (to 18%) of finishing top 4

  • Collingwood: 12% point decrease (to 30%) in probability of playing Finals; 7% point increase (to 9%) of finishing top 4

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Since there’s so much now in the home and away ladder projections, it makes sense to, once again, separate the Finals projections. They appear below, along with the movement in probabilities since pre-Round.

Again, it’s the four teams from the weekend that show the most material differences and what’s recorded here for them is how the change in the probability of making or missing Finals breaks down across the different possible ladder finishes.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are essentially identical and have that:

  • There’s about a 7-in-20 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages

  • There’s about a 3-in-10 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages

  • There’s about a 1-in-6 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages