2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder Pre-Season
/As MoS forecasting of men’s AFL results enters its 20th season, welcome to a new set of ridiculously early simulations.
This year’s pre Round 0 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)
Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn: about 80% chance of being finalists; 50-60% chances of Top 4; 15-20% chances of being Minor Premier
Geelong, Port Adelaide, Sydney: about 60-65% chances of being finalists; 30-35% chances of Top 4; 6-8% chances of being Minor Premier
Fremantle, Carlton, Adelaide, and GWS: about 45-50% chances of being finalists; 20-25% chances of Top 4; 3-5% chances of being Minor Premier
Collingwood, Melbourne, St Kilda, Gold Coast, and Essendon: about 25-40% chances of being finalists; 10-15% chances of Top 4; 1-3% chances of being Minor Premier
Richmond, West Coast, and North Melbourne: about 1-5% chances of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; tiny chances of being Minor Premier
LADDER FINISHES AND FINALS FATE
The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.
Regular readers might notice that there are no decimal places in the probability estimates above. The reason for this is two-fold - firstly that decimal places convey an unwarranted sense of precision for estimates based on 10,000 simulations for which the worst case standard deviation is about 0.5%, and secondly because it makes the numbers more quickly interpretable. This means that figures of 0% are, in actuality, less than 0.5%.
Those same regular readers might also notice that the table above includes a slew of new columns this season, including firstly probabilities for a team’s finishing 9th or finishing last in the home and away season. The 9th-place chances are relatively evenly spread, with all but the bottom three teams having chances of between 4 and 7% at finishing in this least-coveted ladder spot. Conversely, at this stage the spoon seems to be largely a race in three with North Melbourne clear favourites.
The middle block of the table reports on the teams’ probability of making Finals given that they finish on a specific number of wins. Overall we see that 10.5 or 11 wins will give most teams between about 3 and 5% chances of playing Finals, 11.5 or 12 wins about 25 to 33% chances, 12.5 or 13 wins about 65 to 75% chances, and 13.5 to 14 wins about 96 to 98% chances. It’ll be interesting to see how these percentages change across the course of the home and away season, both overall and for specific teams.
The final block is what used to appear in a table of its own and reveals MoSHBODS’ views about likely Finals outcomes. If the home and away forecasts can be considered brave, these are, being kindest, foolhardy. Nonetheless, they show three teams with estimated 15-20% Flag chances, three or four teams with 5-10% chances, and all but three of the remaining teams with about 1-4% chances. These numbers, too, will be more interesting (and relevant) as they change and the season progresses.
LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE
As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.
So, our current estimates are that:
There’s about a 7-in-20 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages
There’s about a 3-in-10 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages
There’s about a 1-in-6 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages
