2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R1

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This year’s post Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn, Geelong: about 80-85% chance of being finalists; 50-65% chances of Top 4; 15-25% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Western Bulldogs, GWS: about 70-75% chances of being finalists; 35-45% chances of Top 4; 7-11% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Adelaide, Collingwood, Gold Coast: about 55-60% chances of being finalists; 25-30% chances of Top 4; 4-6% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Sydney, Carlton, Fremantle, Port Adelaide: about 30-40% chances of being finalists; 10-13% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne, Essendon, St Kilda: about 20-30% chances of being finalists; 6-8% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast: about <1-10% chances of being finalists; <1-2% chances of Top 4; tiny chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.

Looking at the changes, we have as the most dramatic:

INCREASES

  • Gold Coast: 25% point increase (to 54%) in probability of playing Finals; 15% point increase (to 23%) of finishing top 4

  • GWS: 23% point increase (to 69%) in probability of playing Finals; 15% increase (to 34%) of finishing top 4

DECREASES

  • Port Adelaide: 27% point decrease (to 39%) in probability of playing Finals; 10% point decrease (to 19%) of finishing top 4

  • Sydney: 17% point decrease (to 41%) in probability of playing Finals; 15% point decrease (to 13%) of finishing top 4

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order:

  • Hawthorn

  • Brisbane Lions

  • Geelong

  • Western Bulldogs

  • Collingwood

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are very similar to last week’s and have that:

  • There’s about a 7-in-20 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages

  • There’s about a 3-in-10 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages

  • There’s about a 1-in-6 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages