Compared to the simulations at the end of Round 20, the latest simulations see:

Adelaide's minor premiership chances plummet from 49% to under 5%. It's conceivable now, though barely, that they could finish at low as 6th.
Carlton's chances of making the finals rise from 13% to 35%
Collingwood's Top 4 chances drop from 94% to 80%, and its minor premiership chances virtually extinguished after having been assessed at about 11% last week
Essendon's chances of playing finals football dive from 26% to just over 1%
Fremantle's chances of competing in the finals rising from 43% to 62%
Geelong's Top 8 chances rise from 95% to 99%
The Gold Coast virtually handing the Wooden Spoon to GWS, the Suns' Spoon chances now rated at only just over 1%
GWS preparing its Spoon Acceptance speech
Hawthorn lifting its minor premiership chances from 16% to 49%. (Curiously, the Hawks are now more likely to finish 1st, 3rd or 4th than they are to finish 2nd.)
The Roos' Top 4 chances inch up from about 1% to just under 4%, and their chances of a Top 8 spot reach 100%
Richmond's Top 8 chances disappear (they were assessed at just over 2% last week)
St Kilda's Top 8 chances drop from 26% to under 3%
Sydney's minor premiership chances climb from 24% to 47%
West Coast's Top 4 chances rise from about 7% to 19% and their Top 8 chances reach 100%

To help you assess the validity of these latest simulations for yourself, here are the simulated probabilities for the results of each of the remaining 18 games in the home-and-away season, upon which the simulated ladder positions discussed above are based.