2012 - Simulated Wagers

If MAFL has no other redeeming features at least it forces me to make public the wagering actions I believe are suggested by the statistical models I've constructed. In that spirit, I thought it was time to take the results of the end-of-season simulations that I've run over the past two weeks and use them to commit to explicit actions in the TAB AFL Futures Markets.

My rule is that I'll (notionally) level-stake any opportunity where I've assessed an edge of 5% or more (defined as Market Price x Assessed Probability less 1). Based on the simulated results as at the end of Rounds 19 and 20 that means I'm committing to the follow wagers:

Based on the simulations at the end of Round 19 

• 1 unit on Geelong at $1.10 to make the Final 8 (assessed edge 6%) [now priced at $1.05]
• 1 unit on Geelong at $8.00 to make the Top 4 (assessed edge 14%) [now priced at $101.00]
• 1 unit on St Kilda at $1.40 to miss the Final 8 (assessed edge 11%) [now priced at $1.45] 

Based on the simulations at the end of Round 20 

• 1 unit on Carlton at $9.00 to make the Final 8 (assessed edge 13%)
• 1 unit on Richmond at $51.00 to make the Final 8 (assessed edge 12%)
• 1 unit on Hawthorn at $7.00 to be minor premiers (assessed edge 12%)
• 1 unit on Fremantle at $1.90 to miss the Final 8 (assessed edge 8%)
• 1 unit on St Kilda at $1.45 to miss the Final 8 (assessed edge 8%)

I'll add to these each week and tally up the results at season's end.