2012 - Simulations After Round 20

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Here are the results of the new simulations, run using the updated competition ladder and the new MARS Ratings.

(The new results are in grey on the left, while those from last week are provided for comparative purposes and appear in green on the right.)

On a team-by-team basis the major changes are: 

  • Adelaide: now the favorites for the minor premiership, finishing top in almost 50% of simulations
  • Brisbane Lions: virtual certainties to finish somewhere within ladder positions 13 to 17
  • Carlton: increased their chances of making the 8 from about 7% to almost 13%
  • Collingwood: more than doubled their chances of winning the minor premiership from about 5% to 11%, and also boosted their chances of finishing in the Top 4 from 76% to 94%
  • Essendon: almost halved their chances of making the 8 from 47% to 26%
  • Fremantle: decreased their chances of making the 8 from 59% to 43%
  • Geelong: virtually eliminated their chances of a Top 4 finish, but left their finals chances only very slightly undiminished
  • Gold Coast: almost halved their Spoon chances from 26% to 15%
  • GWS: increased their Spoon chances from 74% to 85%
  • Hawthorn: saw their chances of finishing as minor premiers drop from 19% to 16%, but their chances of a Top 4 finish rise from 98% to 99%
  • Kangaroos: saw their chances of finishing in the Top 4 approximately halve from 2% to about 1%, but their chances of a Top 8 finish rise from 76% to 96%
  • Melbourne: did nothing to alter the inevitability of a finish somewhere from 13th to 17th 
  • Port Adelaide: also did nothing to alter the inevitability of a finish somewhere from 13th to 17th
  • Richmond: blew gently on their flickering chances of a Top 8 finish, nudging it from under 1% to just over 2%
  • St Kilda: lifted their finals chances from 21% to 26%
  • Sydney: more then halved their chances of taking out the minor premiership from 54% to 24%, and opened the probabilistic door, albeit only a hair's width, for a finish outside the Top 4
  • West Coast: saw their chances of a Top 4 finish slip from 10% to under 7%, but their chances of a spot in the finals rise from 93% to 99%
  • Western Bulldogs: did nothing to alter the inevitability of a finish somewhere from 13th to 17th

Marrying these new simulation results to the current TAB AFL Futures Markets we find value in: 

  • Hawthorn at $7 for the minor premiership (12% edge)
  • Carlton at $9 (13% edge) and Richmond at $51 (12% edge) for spots in the 8
  • Fremantle at $1.90 (8% edge) and St Kilda at $1.45 (8% edge) to miss the 8

The value we spotted last week in the prices for Geelong to make the 8, Collingwood and Geelong to make the Top 4, and in GWS to win the Spoon has now disappeared, leaving a wager on St Kilda to miss the 8 as the only identified "value bet" that still carries that label.