2025 - Round 6 : Moving On

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Another feast of nine-games this week, and played in a variety of States just to add some more colour to the mix.

Seven of the nine games are expected to be won by less than three goals, one by about four-and-a-half goals, and the remaining game by just over seven goals, which should again make head-to-head tipping quite challenging this week.

Let’s see what the models make of the nine.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There’s just a little contrarianism this week, with Home Sweet Homes’ five game contribution topped up with two each from Consult the Ladder and the RSMP twins.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five games, most notably 31 points in the Roos v Blues clash, 23 points in the Tigers v Suns clash, and 14 points in the Dogs v Saints matchup.

MoSSBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in seven games again this week, and Bookie_3 in three.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are four games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges including 21% points in the Roos v Blues game, and 11% points in the Tigers v Suns, Swans v Power, and Dogs v Saints.

MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in eight games, and Bookie_LPSO in three.

WAGERS

It’s a very restrained wagering week this week, with the Head-to-Head Fund opting for just three wagers, ranging in size from 0.5 to 1.5% of the original Fund, and the Line Fund opting also for just three bets, all of them on the same teams that the Head-to-Head Fund has selected, and ranging in size from 1.3 to 2.3% of the original Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

In total, just over 3% of the original Head-to-Head Fund is at risk, as is just under 63% of the original Line Fund.

The week’s Ready Reckoner reveals that West Coast (just) carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a win and a loss by 27 points or more represents 3.9% of the original Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Richmond carry 3.8% risk, and Adelaide 2.3%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just over 5c, while a worst case set would snip 4.5c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.