2024 - Team Ratings After Round 21
/The main questions this week were: how far will Sydney fall, and did the Lions do enough to take top spot on both or either Rating System?
For MoSSBODS, the answers were four spots to 6th and no, and for MoSHBODS they were six spots to 8th and also no.
MoSSBODS reranked 13 teams this week and MoSHBODS 12, which left agreement towards the top of the rankings only about the Dogs (1st), and Carlton (4th). MoSSBODS now prefers Port Adelaide for 2nd and Brisbane Lions for 3rd, while MoSHBODS has the same teams but in the opposite order.
Eight teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS, with Adelaide and Essendon both climbing four spots, GWS and Collingwood climbing three, Gold Coast falling two, St Kilda falling three, Sydney falling four, and Melbourne falling six. Eight teams also moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS, with Port Adelaide and Essendon climbing four spots, Collingwood and Adelaide climbing two, Fremantle falling two, Melbourne three, St Kilda five, and Sydney six spots.
On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 13th are now separated by only 6.8 Scoring Shots (which is about 25 points), and on MoSHBODS 4th and 15th are separated by only 16 points.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.9904 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.62 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Dogs, Lions, and Power, and MoSHBODS with Dogs, Power, and Lions. On defence, both now have Top 3s of Dogs, Power, and Lions. I cannot recall another time when the same three teams filled the Top 3 spots on offence and defence for both Rating Systems.
MoSSBODS still has only eight teams rated as above average on offence while MoSHBODS still has 10. Also, MoSSBODS now has 13 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS has only 9 so rated.
Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS now span a range of 9.3 scoring shots (about 34 points) and defensive ratings a range of just 8.3 scoring shots (about 30 points). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 31 points and defensive ratings a range of about 29 points.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.
We can put these Ratings into an historical context by seeing how they compare to the Ratings of teams from previous seasons at the end of Round 21 (assuming they had one in their respective home and away season).
Wetern Bulldogs are now very close to having a Rating in the top 10% of those that went on to play in a Grand Final.
On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 4 are rated negatively on both (down 2), one is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 6 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 2).
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.77, which is up on last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked 11 teams this week, including dropping Sydney to 3rd behind Brisbane Lions and Western Bulldogs.
Below them, Port Adelaide rose 3 spots into 5th and was the only other team to move by more than a single spot.
Just over 26 Rating Points now separates 2nd from 12th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of about 22 points.
By way of comparison, at the end of Round 21 last season, the gap between 2nd and 12th was just over 30 Rating Points, or roughly 24 points.
There are now 11 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, with Adelaide rated just below 1,000 and St Kilda not that far behind them.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:
HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: GWS and Sydney
LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs and Carlton
MARS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 13, ahead of MoSSBODS with 6, and MoSHBODS with just 3.
MARS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of Essendon, Melbourne, and Sydney.
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of only 5 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS about only 3, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 9.
Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Sydney has the widest range of rankings at five spots, and that there are four other teams where the rankings span more than two spots.
There are also three teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Carlton, Collingwood, and Richmond.
