2024 - Round 21 Results - I Wouldn't Start From Here
/Five of the nine early-week favourites were successful in Round 21, which was a round that saw all but three of its games decided by 13 points or fewer. In the head-to-head tipping, best was Home Sweet Home’s 8 and worst MoSSBODS_Marg’s 3.
Most scored 5, however, which was also the all-Tipster average for the round, taking the season-long figure to 111.8 from 180 (62%). Amongst the scorers of five were MoSHPlay_Marg and the RSMP twins, which left them, collectively, in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd on the Leaderboard.
So blowout matches made margin prediction more difficult this week, and saw mean absolute errors (MAEs) ranging from Bookie_9’s 31.0 points per game to MoSSBODS_Marg’s 34.6 points per game, with the all-Predictor average coming in at 33.2 points per game, which is up by over 4 points per game on last week. The season-long all-predictor average is now 26.7 points per game per predictor.
There was only one movement on the Leaderboard this week, with Bookie_9 and Bookie_Hcap swapping places.
The gap between 1st and 7th is, however, only 67 points.
Log probability scores were all near zero this week, but slightly positive for the bookie-based forecasters, and slightly negative for the others. Best was Bookie_LPSO, which was enough to allow it to wrest 1st place away from MoSHPlay_Prob Bookie_RE retained 3rd,
WAGERING
Thee only positive about this week for Investors was that the loss was the smallest for a single round since Roud 15
Th Overs/Unders Fund was the only one to registera profit, but its near 9c gain was nowhere near big enough to cover the 5c Head-to-Head Fund loss, and the 3.5c Line Fund loss.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished down by just under 3c, which leaves it down now by just over 26c on the season, that from a -9% ROT on a 2.9 turn.
