2024 - Round 8 : Overs/Unders

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There are some quite significant differences in the Totals forecasts of the MoS twins compared to the bookmakers this week, most starkly in the Swans v Giants game where the difference - which can presumably be attributed to the expected heavy rainfall in Sydney for the rest of the week - is over 6 goals.

In terms of this week’s highests and lowests, there is agreement only about the high-and low-scoring teams:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Adelaide v Port Adelaide

  • Bookmakers: Carlton v Collingwood

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast

  • MoSHBODS: Richmond v Fremantle

  • Bookmakers: Sydney v GWS

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: St Kilda

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: North Melbourne

WAGERS

Investors have a season-high six wagers this week, five unders and one overs, and would have a seventh but for the forecast rain in Sydney between now and Saturday. Combined, the six wagers represent a staggering 27.2% of the original Fund.

I must confess that I was highly tempted to make at least some of the bet anyway, because I can’t see it knocking six goals off the Total, but there’s no point in having strict wagering rules if they’re not strictly applied.

Keen eyes also might note that we have u165.5 at $1.88 in the Lions’ game, when $1.90 was on offer from the TAB. At the time I was placing the bets in the early hours of this morning, the TAB suddenly suspended Totals betting on the Lions and the Eagles games, so I thought I should leap on the 165.5 at Sportsbet lest they also suspend and both then come back with a less attractive number. In the end, after about 20 minutes, the TAB reopened the market at the same Total, but by then I’d married another. What’s 2.3% between friends?

The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers range from 7 to 13.5 points, and the wager sizes from 2.5% to 6.4% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared amongst all the forecasters in Round 7, with only MoSSBODS missing out entirely:

  • Game Margins: Sportsbet

  • Home Team Scores: TAB

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: TAB

Three season-long titles switched hands this week as MoSSBODS surrendered all three of its titles: Home Team Score, Away Team Score, and Game Totals. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: Sportsbet 5 points ahead of the TAB and 60 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 5 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 21 points ahead of the TAB

Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 0.5 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 8 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: Sportsbet 5 points ahead of the TAB and 10 points ahead of MoSSBODS

MoSSBODS had two wagers last week, one overs with the TAB that was a loser, and one unders with Sportsbet that was also a loser.

It ended then at 10 and 9 with the TAB, and at 3 and 4 with Sportsbet, for an overall 13 and 13 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 2 from 9 against the TAB, and 5 from 9 against Sportsbet. That took MoSSBODS to 31 from 63 (49%) against the TAB, and 33 from 63 (52%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS landed 5 from 9 against the TAB and 7 from 9 against Sportsbet, which took it to 30 from 63 (48%) against the TAB, and 31 from 63 (49%) against Sportsbet.